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Este vs Caravaggio

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group C 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

40' Event
Rosso D.
42' Event
Menato A.
72' Event
Dalla Bernardina G.

AI Match Summary

Este in this Serie D - Group C 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Este.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Este
20%
Draws
36%
Caravaggio
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Este

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Este lately — more wins on the board than Caravaggio.
  • Este are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group C 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Este Clean Sheet 20%
Caravaggio Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Este Caravaggio
Matches Played 35 30
Wins 16 6
Draws 8 6
Losses 11 18
Goals Scored 1.26 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 16, 2025 Serie D - Group C
Este vs Caravaggio
3:1
Oct 20, 2024 Serie D - Group C
Caravaggio vs Este
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Este Compare

Top Goalscorer Rosso D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Menato A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48

Caravaggio Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Este 58 / 100
Caravaggio 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Este Caravaggio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Este Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Caravaggio let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.50 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Este scored in 69% of their last 35 outings.

Solid form: Este remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Este VS -
0.75 Goals Scored 0
0.5 Goals Conceded 0
38% Over 1.5 0%
13% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Este

(Home)
16 Sept
Clodiense
1 : 0
Este
13 Sept
Este
0 : 1
FC Obermais
06 Sept
Brian Lignano
0 : 2
Este
17 May
Clodiense
1 : 0
Este
03 May
Este
2 : 0
Luparense FC
Page 1 of 7

Caravaggio

(Away)
17 May
Caravaggio
2 : 3
Ciserano-Bergamo
04 May
Caravaggio
0 : 3
Luparense FC
27 Apr
Real Calepina
0 : 1
Caravaggio
17 Apr
Caravaggio
0 : 0
Brusaporto
13 Apr
Brian Lignano
2 : 2
Caravaggio
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dolomiti Bellunesi 38 23 9 6 65:39 78
2 Treviso 38 22 8 8 59:32 74
3 Villa Valle 38 19 10 9 62:44 67
4 Adriese 38 18 12 8 55:31 66
5 Mestre 38 19 7 12 40:34 64
6 Campodarsego 38 15 17 6 52:36 62
7 Brusaporto 38 16 12 10 46:37 60
8 Luparense FC 38 13 17 8 48:36 56
9 Real Calepina 38 15 10 13 44:44 55
10 Cjarlins Muzane 38 15 10 13 50:49 55
11 Este 38 14 12 12 50:50 54
12 Brian Lignano 38 12 12 14 45:49 48
13 Calvi Noale 38 12 11 15 44:44 47
14 Bassano Virtus 38 11 14 13 43:36 47
15 Portogruaro 38 10 16 12 32:36 46
16 Caravaggio 38 11 8 19 42:54 41
17 Ciserano-Bergamo 38 9 13 16 42:55 40
18 Chions 38 6 12 20 35:59 30
19 Montecchio Maggiore 38 6 9 23 32:55 27
20 Lavis 38 3 3 32 25:91 12
Promotion - Serie D - Group C 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group C 2024/2025 (Play Out)