Sport Picks
Esteli vs Alianza FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
North & Central America
CONCACAF Central American Cup Estadio Independencia, Estelí 
Match Events
4'
4'
Aranda H.
Assist: Blanco R.
22'
22'
Sub
Artola I. In: Calero A.
Out: Artola I.
29'
29'
Casado E.
Assist: Barrera J.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 3-1. The second leg ended 3-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
37%
35%
28%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Esteli
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
37%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Esteli come out ahead of Alianza FC on wins alone.
- Model gives Esteli a 37% chance of winning this.
- Esteli have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Esteli, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Esteli Clean Sheet 68%
Alianza FC Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Esteli | Alianza FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 25 |
| Wins | 17 | 9 |
| Draws | 6 | 9 |
| Losses | 6 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.72 | 1.28 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.86 | 1.32 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 12, 2026 CONCACAF Central American Cup
Esteli vs Alianza FC
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Esteli Compare
Top Goalscorer Aranda H.
1 Goals Assists Leader Casado E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Alianza FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Gustavo Souza
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Esteli 95 / 100
Alianza FC 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Esteli Alianza FC
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Esteli Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 4.00 goals.
Attacking prowess: Esteli scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.
Alianza FC let in goals in 72% of their last 25 matches.
Esteli has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Esteli VS Alianza FC
1.5 Goals Scored 1.25
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
67% Over 1.5 75%
17% Over 2.5 63%
17% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Esteli
(Home) 08 Oct
UNAN-Managua
1 : 0 Esteli
11 Sept
Managua FC
1 : 1 Esteli
06 Sept
Rancho Santana
1 : 1 Esteli
03 Sept
Esteli
2 : 0 San Marcos
30 Aug
Sport Sebaco
0 : 5 Esteli
Page 1 of 6
03 Sept
Esteli
2 : 0 San Marcos
23 Aug
Esteli
0 : 2 Diriangen
19 Aug
Esteli
0 : 2 Herediano
12 Aug
Esteli
3 : 1 Alianza FC
08 Aug
Esteli
4 : 1 Walter Ferreti
Page 1 of 3
Alianza FC
(Away) 09 Oct
FAS
2 : 1 Alianza FC
04 Oct
Alianza FC
2 : 2 Luis Angel Firpo
01 Oct
Alianza FC
2 : 1 Platense Municipal
27 Sept
Alianza FC
1 : 1 Inca Aruba
24 Sept
Alianza FC
2 : 2 Fuerte San Francisco
Page 1 of 5
09 Oct
FAS
2 : 1 Alianza FC
10 Sept
Motagua
3 : 0 Alianza FC
06 Sept
Aguila
2 : 2 Alianza FC
26 Aug
Platense Municipal
2 : 2 Alianza FC
23 Aug
Metapan
2 : 0 Alianza FC
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alajuelense | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7:3 | 9 |
| 2 | Luis Angel Firpo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:3 | 7 |
| 3 | Plaza Amador | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10:10 | 6 |
| 4 | Xelaju | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:7 | 4 |
| 5 | Diriangen | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5:11 | 3 |
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | 9 |
| 2 | Marathon | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:1 | 7 |
| 3 | Herediano | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 4 | Esteli | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 5 | Antigua | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2:9 | 0 |
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9:3 | 12 |
| 2 | Saprissa | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8:4 | 9 |
| 3 | Deportivo Mixco | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6:6 | 6 |
| 4 | Alianza | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 5 | UMECIT | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3:9 | 0 |
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cartagines | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8:2 | 8 |
| 2 | Motagua | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8:2 | 8 |
| 3 | Municipal | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4:3 | 6 |
| 4 | FAS | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 4 |
| 5 | Verdes | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1:14 | 0 |
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)
