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Esteli vs Herediano

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Central American Cup Estadio Independencia, Estelí
Wed, Aug 19, 2026
VS
03:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 2-2. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Chances could be at a premium in this fixture. Esteli have averaged 1.93 scored and 0.79 conceded recently, against Herediano's 1.04 scored and 0.71 conceded. Head-to-head, Esteli have won 1 to Herediano's 0, with 2 draws. They last met on Nov 1, 2024, ending 2:2. The numbers (1.25 xG vs 0.69) point toward Esteli. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Esteli
20%
Draws
20%
Herediano
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Esteli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Herediano haven't matched Esteli's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Esteli a 60% chance of winning this.
  • Esteli have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Esteli Clean Sheet 20%
Herediano Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Esteli Herediano
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 18 15
Draws 7 5
Losses 3 8
Goals Scored 1.93 1.04
Goals Conceded 0.79 0.71
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 1, 2024 CONCACAF Central American Cup
Herediano vs Esteli
2:2
Oct 25, 2024 CONCACAF Central American Cup
Esteli vs Herediano
0:0
Nov 25, 2020 CONCACAF League
Herediano vs Esteli
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Esteli 85 / 100
Herediano 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Esteli Herediano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Esteli Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Esteli scored in 86% of their last 28 games.

Recent resilience: Esteli stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

H2H data points to 1.67 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: Herediano conceded in 46% of 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Esteli VS Herediano
1.88 Goals Scored 1
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Esteli

(Home)
12 Aug
Esteli
3 : 1
Alianza FC
08 Aug
Esteli
4 : 1
Walter Ferreti
05 Aug
Antigua
0 : 2
Esteli
30 Jul
Jalapa
0 : 1
Esteli
26 Jul
Esteli
2 : 0
Matagalpa
Page 1 of 6

Herediano

(Away)
10 Aug
Herediano
0 : 3
Alajuelense
06 Aug
Alianza FC
1 : 0
Herediano
03 Aug
Inter San Carlos
1 : 1
Herediano
31 Jul
Herediano
0 : 0
Marathon
24 Jul
Herediano
3 : 0
Puntarenas FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Alajuelense 2 2 0 0 4:1 6
2 Plaza Amador 3 2 0 1 9:7 6
3 Diriangen 2 1 0 1 5:5 3
4 Luis Angel Firpo 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
5 Xelaju 2 0 0 2 2:6 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Esteli 2 2 0 0 5:1 6
2 Alianza FC 3 2 0 1 4:4 6
3 Marathon 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
4 Herediano 2 0 1 1 0:1 1
5 Antigua 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Saprissa 3 3 0 0 7:2 9
2 Olimpia 2 2 0 0 4:1 6
3 Alianza 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
4 UMECIT 2 0 0 2 2:4 0
5 Deportivo Mixco 2 0 0 2 0:5 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Motagua 3 2 1 0 7:1 7
2 Municipal 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
3 FAS 2 1 0 1 4:2 3
4 Cartagines 2 0 2 0 2:2 2
5 Verdes 3 0 0 3 1:10 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)