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Esteli vs Herediano - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Central American Cup Estadio Independencia, Estelí
Esteli Logo

Esteli

0 - 2
FT
Herediano Logo

Herediano

Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Aguilar E.
Assist: Murillo A.
26'
Quiros H.
30'
Montes G.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-2. This leg finished 0-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Esteli
20%
Draws
34%
Herediano
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Esteli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Herediano haven't matched Esteli's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Esteli a 46% chance of winning this.
  • Esteli have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Herediano, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Esteli Clean Sheet 68%
Herediano Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Esteli Herediano
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 17 14
Draws 6 4
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 1.72 1.04
Goals Conceded 0.86 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 19, 2026 CONCACAF Central American Cup
Esteli vs Herediano
0:2
Nov 1, 2024 CONCACAF Central American Cup
Herediano vs Esteli
2:2
Oct 25, 2024 CONCACAF Central American Cup
Esteli vs Herediano
0:0
Nov 25, 2020 CONCACAF League
Herediano vs Esteli
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Esteli Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Herediano Compare

Top Goalscorer Aguilar E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Esteli 95 / 100
Herediano 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Esteli Herediano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Esteli Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Esteli scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

These sides typically produce 1.75 goals when they meet.

Esteli has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Away concern: Herediano has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Esteli VS Herediano
1.5 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Esteli

(Home)
08 Oct
UNAN-Managua
1 : 0
Esteli
11 Sept
Managua FC
1 : 1
Esteli
06 Sept
Rancho Santana
1 : 1
Esteli
03 Sept
Esteli
2 : 0
San Marcos
30 Aug
Sport Sebaco
0 : 5
Esteli
Page 1 of 6

Herediano

(Away)
20 Sept
Saprissa
2 : 0
Herediano
13 Sept
Escorpiones
0 : 2
Herediano
05 Sept
Herediano
2 : 3
Zeledon
30 Aug
Cartagines
1 : 0
Herediano
27 Aug
Herediano
2 : 1
Antigua
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Alajuelense 4 3 0 1 7:3 9
2 Luis Angel Firpo 4 2 1 1 7:3 7
3 Plaza Amador 4 2 0 2 10:10 6
4 Xelaju 4 1 1 2 5:7 4
5 Diriangen 4 1 0 3 5:11 3
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Alianza FC 4 3 0 1 5:4 9
2 Marathon 4 2 1 1 6:1 7
3 Herediano 4 2 1 1 4:2 7
4 Esteli 4 2 0 2 5:6 6
5 Antigua 4 0 0 4 2:9 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Olimpia 4 4 0 0 9:3 12
2 Saprissa 4 3 0 1 8:4 9
3 Deportivo Mixco 4 2 0 2 6:6 6
4 Alianza 4 1 0 3 3:7 3
5 UMECIT 4 0 0 4 3:9 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cartagines 4 2 2 0 8:2 8
2 Motagua 4 2 2 0 8:2 8
3 Municipal 4 1 3 0 4:3 6
4 FAS 4 1 1 2 5:5 4
5 Verdes 4 0 0 4 1:14 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)