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Esteli vs Matagalpa

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Liga Primera
Esteli Logo

Esteli

2 - 0
FT
Matagalpa Logo

Matagalpa

Our Tip

Match Events

45'
Benavides R.
45'
Casado E.
56'
Herrera F.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Esteli in this Liga Primera matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Esteli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Esteli
20%
Draws
42%
Matagalpa
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Matagalpa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Esteli have won more games recently than Matagalpa.
  • Model gives Esteli a 38% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Esteli Clean Sheet 20%
Matagalpa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Esteli Matagalpa
Matches Played 36 32
Wins 22 10
Draws 8 7
Losses 6 15
Goals Scored 1.78 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.81 1.56
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 26, 2026 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Matagalpa
2:0
Apr 26, 2026 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Matagalpa
0:0
Feb 23, 2026 Liga Primera
Matagalpa vs Esteli
1:1
Nov 23, 2025 Liga Primera
Matagalpa vs Esteli
1:0
Sep 14, 2025 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Matagalpa
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Esteli Compare

Top Goalscorer Gutierrez J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Matagalpa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Esteli 76 / 100
Matagalpa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Esteli Matagalpa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Esteli Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Esteli scored in 78% of their last 36 outings.

Matagalpa has conceded goals in 75% of their last 32 outings.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Esteli has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Esteli VS Matagalpa
1.5 Goals Scored 0.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Esteli

(Home)
11 Sept
Managua FC
1 : 1
Esteli
06 Sept
Rancho Santana
1 : 1
Esteli
03 Sept
Esteli
2 : 0
San Marcos
30 Aug
Sport Sebaco
0 : 5
Esteli
27 Aug
Marathon
3 : 0
Esteli
Page 1 of 8

Matagalpa

(Away)
07 Sept
Matagalpa
0 : 3
Diriangen
04 Sept
Matagalpa
1 : 0
UNAN-Managua
30 Aug
Matagalpa
0 : 1
Rancho Santana
23 Aug
Jalapa
0 : 1
Matagalpa
16 Aug
Matagalpa
1 : 0
San Marcos
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Managua FC 9 7 2 0 27:9 23
2 Diriangen 9 7 2 0 20:6 23
3 Esteli 9 5 3 1 17:6 18
4 UNAN-Managua 9 5 2 2 11:7 17
5 Sport Sebaco 9 3 2 4 9:17 11
6 San Marcos 9 3 1 5 8:14 10
7 Matagalpa 9 3 0 6 4:16 9
8 Walter Ferreti 9 2 1 6 12:16 7
9 Rancho Santana 9 1 2 6 7:14 5
10 Jalapa 9 1 1 7 4:14 4
Promotion - Liga Primera (Apertura - Winners)
Promotion - Liga Primera (Apertura - Winners)