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Esteli vs Matagalpa

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Liga Primera
Sat, Jul 25, 2026
VS
01:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Esteli host Matagalpa in the Liga Primera. This one's hard to separate. Esteli have averaged 1.38 scored and 1.25 conceded recently, against Matagalpa's 1.88 scored and 1.5 conceded. Past meetings favor Esteli slightly — 2-1-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 26, 2026, ending 0:0. xG projections (1.44 - 1.56) back Esteli to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Esteli
11%
Draws
9%
Matagalpa
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Esteli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Esteli have won more games recently than Matagalpa.
  • Model gives Esteli a 80% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Esteli Clean Sheet 15%
Matagalpa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Esteli Matagalpa
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 20 11
Draws 8 7
Losses 5 12
Goals Scored 1.38 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Matagalpa
0:0
Feb 23, 2026 Liga Primera
Matagalpa vs Esteli
1:1
Nov 23, 2025 Liga Primera
Matagalpa vs Esteli
1:0
Sep 14, 2025 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Matagalpa
2:1
Jul 7, 2025 Copa Primera
Esteli vs Matagalpa
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Esteli 75 / 100
Matagalpa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Esteli Matagalpa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EST Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Esteli has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Attacking prowess: Esteli scored in 79% of their last 33 outings.

Matagalpa has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Esteli VS Matagalpa
1.38 Goals Scored 1.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Esteli

(Home)
11 Jul
Esteli
2 : 0
Xilotepelt
04 Jul
Xilotepelt
0 : 1
Esteli
17 May
Diriangen
1 : 2
Esteli
10 May
Esteli
1 : 1
Diriangen
07 May
Esteli
3 : 1
Jalapa
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Matagalpa

(Away)
12 Jul
Jalapa
3 : 2
Matagalpa
05 Jul
Matagalpa
3 : 1
Jalapa
07 May
Diriangen
3 : 1
Matagalpa
03 May
Matagalpa
0 : 1
Diriangen
30 Apr
Managua FC
2 : 4
Matagalpa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Diriangen00000:00
2Walter Ferreti00000:00
3Esteli00000:00
4Managua FC00000:00
5UNAN-Managua00000:00
6Jalapa00000:00
7San Marcos00000:00
8Sport Sebaco00000:00
9Matagalpa00000:00
10Rancho Santana00000:00
Promotion - Liga Primera (Apertura - Winners)
Promotion - Liga Primera (Apertura - Winners)