Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Estoril vs Rio Ave

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal 2025/2026 Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, Estoril
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Ferro
Assist: Holsgrove J.
41'
Carvalho J.
46'
Sub
Guitane R. In: Lacximicant A.
Out: Guitane R.

AI Match Summary

Rio Ave in this Liga Portugal 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Rio Ave.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
Estoril
17%
Draws
70%
Rio Ave
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Rio Ave

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Estoril lately — more wins on the board than Rio Ave.
  • Rio Ave are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Regular Liga Portugal 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Estoril Clean Sheet 16%
Rio Ave Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Estoril Rio Ave
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 9
Draws 5 8
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 0.88 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Liga Portugal
Estoril vs Rio Ave
1:2
Nov 1, 2025 Liga Portugal
Rio Ave vs Estoril
0:4
Feb 22, 2025 Liga Portugal
Estoril vs Rio Ave
2:1
Sep 21, 2024 Liga Portugal
Rio Ave vs Estoril
2:2
Jan 31, 2024 Liga Portugal
Rio Ave vs Estoril
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Estoril Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferro
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Rio Ave Compare

Top Goalscorer Brabec J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Estoril 15 / 100
Rio Ave 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Estoril Rio Ave

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick RIO Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rio Ave let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Estoril found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (28 games).

Estoril went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Estoril VS Rio Ave
0.88 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Estoril

(Home)
22 Jul
Alverca
2 : 0
Estoril
11 Jul
Estoril
3 : 0
Atletico CP
16 May
Estoril
1 : 3
Benfica
10 May
Alverca
1 : 1
Estoril
03 May
Braga
1 : 1
Estoril
Page 1 of 6

Rio Ave

(Away)
23 Jul
Rio Ave
5 : 2
Nottingham 2
19 Jul
Rio Ave
2 : 2
Al Ahli SC
15 Jul
Portimonense
0 : 3
Rio Ave
11 Jul
Rio Ave
2 : 1
Arouca
16 May
Casa Pia
1 : 1
Rio Ave
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1FC Porto34284266:1888
2Sporting CP34257289:2482
3Benfica342311074:2580
4Braga341611764:3659
5Famalicao341511842:2956
6Gil Vicente3413111047:3850
7Moreirense341271537:4943
8Arouca341261647:6442
9Vitoria Guimaraes341261639:5142
10Estoril341091554:5739
11Alverca341091535:5239
12Rio Ave348121435:5736
13Santa Clara34991632:4136
14Nacional34971837:4534
15Estrela da Amadora346121638:5630
16Casa Pia346121631:5730
17Tondela346101827:5528
18AFS343121927:6721
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)