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Estrela Calheta vs UD Ovarense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Fonseca R.
62' Event
Almeida I.
86' Event
Almeida I.

AI Match Summary

UD Ovarense in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group B matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored UD Ovarense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

11%
Estrela Calheta
20%
Draws
69%
UD Ovarense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: UD Ovarense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to UD Ovarense lately — more wins on the board than Estrela Calheta.
  • UD Ovarense are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Estrela Calheta Clean Sheet 10%
UD Ovarense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Estrela Calheta UD Ovarense
Matches Played 13 29
Wins 2 9
Draws 3 3
Losses 8 17
Goals Scored 0.69 1.28
Goals Conceded 2 1.79
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 2.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Estrela Calheta vs UD Ovarense
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Estrela Calheta Compare

Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

UD Ovarense Compare

Top Goalscorer Almeida I.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Fonseca R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.1
Avg xA / game 1.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Estrela Calheta 10 / 100
UD Ovarense 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Estrela Calheta UD Ovarense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UD Ovarense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: UD Ovarense conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Estrela Calheta found the back of the net in 54% of recent matches (13 games).

Recent resilience: Estrela Calheta stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Estrela Calheta VS UD Ovarense
0.63 Goals Scored 2.38
2.25 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Estrela Calheta

(Home)
04 Oct
Castro Daire
3 : 0
Estrela Calheta
27 Sept
Estrela Calheta
2 : 2
Cinfaes
20 Sept
Estrela Calheta
1 : 3
SC Vianense
13 Sept
Estrela Calheta
0 : 3
UD Ovarense
15 Aug
Machico
0 : 0
Estrela Calheta
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UD Ovarense

(Away)
20 Sept
UD Ovarense
0 : 1
Os Marialvas
13 Sept
Estrela Calheta
0 : 3
UD Ovarense
06 Sept
UD Ovarense
2 : 0
Sousense
23 Aug
UD Ovarense
1 : 0
Uniao Lamas
16 Aug
Castro Daire
0 : 2
UD Ovarense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD Ovarense 4 4 0 0 8:0 12
2 Machico 4 2 2 0 5:2 8
3 Camacha 4 2 2 0 6:4 8
4 Castro Daire 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
5 Florgrade 4 2 1 1 4:2 7
6 SC Salgueiros 4 1 3 0 4:3 6
7 Cinfaes 4 1 2 1 6:5 5
8 Sanjoanense 4 1 2 1 5:5 5
9 Uniao Lamas 4 1 2 1 5:5 5
10 Beira Mar 4 0 3 1 4:6 3
11 FC Alpendorada 4 1 0 3 4:7 3
12 Estrela Calheta 4 0 2 2 2:8 2
13 Guarda FC 4 0 1 3 2:5 1
14 Sousense 4 0 1 3 3:8 1
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)