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Estrela da Amadora vs Nacional

World World

Club Friendly
Thu, Jul 23, 2026
VS
04:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Estrela da Amadora host Nacional in the Club Friendly. Chances could be at a premium in this fixture. Recent numbers: Estrela da Amadora at 0.88 goals for, 1.13 against; Nacional at 0.88 for, 1 against. Head-to-head, Estrela da Amadora have won 2 to Nacional's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on Apr 4, 2026, ending 2:0. xG projections (0.94 - 1.00) back Estrela da Amadora to edge this. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Estrela da Amadora
39%
Draws
31%
Nacional
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Estrela da Amadora and Nacional have been evenly matched lately, statistically speaking.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Estrela da Amadora Clean Sheet 20%
Nacional Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Estrela da Amadora Nacional
Matches Played 27 26
Wins 6 6
Draws 9 5
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 0.88 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.13 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Liga Portugal
Nacional vs Estrela da Amadora
2:0
Nov 9, 2025 Liga Portugal
Estrela da Amadora vs Nacional
1:1
Apr 6, 2025 Liga Portugal
Nacional vs Estrela da Amadora
0:1
Nov 10, 2024 Liga Portugal
Estrela da Amadora vs Nacional
2:0
May 21, 2023 Liga Portugal 2
Estrela da Amadora vs Nacional
0:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Estrela da Amadora 31 / 100
Nacional 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Estrela da Amadora Nacional

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EST Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Estrela da Amadora found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (27 games).

Defensive concern: Nacional conceded in 77% of 26 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Solid form: Estrela da Amadora remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Estrela da Amadora VS Nacional
0.88 Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%