Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Estrela do Norte vs Audax Sao Mateus

Brazil Brazil

Capixaba 2 Estadio Mario Monteiro (Sumare), Cachoeiro de Itapemirim
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-0. The second leg ended 3-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Estrela do Norte
15%
Draws
32%
Audax Sao Mateus
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Estrela do Norte

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Estrela do Norte come out ahead of Audax Sao Mateus on wins alone.
  • 53% — that's where the model lands on Estrela do Norte taking it.
  • Estrela do Norte have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Estrela do Norte, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62.2%
Estrela do Norte Clean Sheet 20%
Audax Sao Mateus Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Estrela do Norte Audax Sao Mateus
Matches Played 31 17
Wins 17 6
Draws 5 2
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.58 1.06
Goals Conceded 0.71 1.35
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Capixaba 2
Estrela do Norte vs Audax Sao Mateus
3:0
Sep 6, 2026 Capixaba 2
Audax Sao Mateus vs Estrela do Norte
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Estrela do Norte 85 / 100
Audax Sao Mateus 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Estrela do Norte Audax Sao Mateus

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Estrela do Norte Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Estrela do Norte has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Estrela do Norte's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: Audax Sao Mateus conceded in 53% of 17 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Estrela do Norte VS Audax Sao Mateus
2.63 Goals Scored 1.75
0.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Estrela do Norte

(Home)
19 Sept
Estrela do Norte
2 : 1
Linhares Futebol Clube
12 Sept
Estrela do Norte
3 : 0
Audax Sao Mateus
06 Sept
Audax Sao Mateus
1 : 2
Estrela do Norte
29 Aug
Sport-ES
0 : 1
Estrela do Norte
22 Aug
Estrela do Norte
4 : 0
Tupy
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Audax Sao Mateus

(Away)
12 Sept
Estrela do Norte
3 : 0
Audax Sao Mateus
06 Sept
Audax Sao Mateus
1 : 2
Estrela do Norte
29 Aug
GEL
0 : 1
Audax Sao Mateus
22 Aug
Audax Sao Mateus
4 : 0
Doze Futebol Clube
18 Aug
CTE Colatina
0 : 5
Audax Sao Mateus
Page 1 of 4

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Estrela do Norte 5
Audax Sao Mateus 1
Linhares Futebol Clube 2
Rive 1
Final
Estrela do Norte 2
Linhares Futebol Clube 1