Sport Picks
Estrela Vendas Novas vs Fabril do Barreiro
Portugal
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025 
Match Events
3'
3'
Mendonca C.
19'
19'
Mendonca C.
32'
32'
Fernandes M.
AI Match Summary
The Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025 game between Estrela Vendas Novas and Fabril do Barreiro finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Fabril do Barreiro.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
0%
30%
70%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Fabril do Barreiro
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
70%
/ High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Fabril do Barreiro come out ahead of Estrela Vendas Novas on wins alone.
- Model gives Fabril do Barreiro a 70% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Estrela Vendas Novas Clean Sheet 15%
Fabril do Barreiro Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Estrela Vendas Novas | Fabril do Barreiro |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 2 | 7 |
| Draws | 2 | 11 |
| Losses | 26 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 0.53 | 0.87 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.47 | 1.23 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.76 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 16, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Estrela Vendas Novas vs Fabril do Barreiro
1:4
Nov 30, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Fabril do Barreiro vs Estrela Vendas Novas
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Estrela Vendas Novas Compare
Top Goalscorer Carrasco J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38
Fabril do Barreiro Compare
Top Goalscorer Mendonca C.
2 Goals Assists Leader Fernandes M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Estrela Vendas Novas 10 / 100
Fabril do Barreiro 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Estrela Vendas Novas Fabril do Barreiro
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Fabril do Barreiro Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 4.50 goals.
Fabril do Barreiro let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.
Estrela Vendas Novas's goal record stands at 43% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Scoring Trends
Estrela Vendas Novas VS Fabril do Barreiro
0.63 Goals Scored 0.88
2.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 38%
75% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Estrela Vendas Novas
(Home) 13 Apr
Estrela Vendas Novas
0 : 2 Industria
06 Apr
Moncarapachense
6 : 1 Estrela Vendas Novas
29 Mar
Estrela Vendas Novas
2 : 3 FC Barreirense
16 Mar
Estrela Vendas Novas
1 : 4 Fabril do Barreiro
09 Mar
Operario
2 : 1 Estrela Vendas Novas
Page 1 of 6
13 Apr
Estrela Vendas Novas
0 : 2 Industria
29 Mar
Estrela Vendas Novas
2 : 3 FC Barreirense
16 Mar
Estrela Vendas Novas
1 : 4 Fabril do Barreiro
02 Mar
Estrela Vendas Novas
0 : 3 Lusitano GC
16 Feb
Estrela Vendas Novas
0 : 0 Moura AC
Page 1 of 3
Fabril do Barreiro
(Away) 13 Apr
Fabril do Barreiro
2 : 1 Louletano
06 Apr
Industria
2 : 2 Fabril do Barreiro
29 Mar
Fabril do Barreiro
0 : 0 Moncarapachense
16 Mar
Estrela Vendas Novas
1 : 4 Fabril do Barreiro
09 Mar
Fabril do Barreiro
1 : 1 FC Barreirense
Page 1 of 6
06 Apr
Industria
2 : 2 Fabril do Barreiro
16 Mar
Estrela Vendas Novas
1 : 4 Fabril do Barreiro
23 Feb
Lusitano GC
4 : 0 Fabril do Barreiro
09 Feb
Moura AC
0 : 1 Fabril do Barreiro
26 Jan
Lagoa
2 : 0 Fabril do Barreiro
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lusitano GC | 26 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 57:14 | 58 |
| 2 | Amora | 26 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 41:19 | 57 |
| 3 | Sintrense | 26 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 39:26 | 52 |
| 4 | Moncarapachense | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 39:19 | 51 |
| 5 | Louletano | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 44:20 | 50 |
| 6 | Serpa | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 42:27 | 45 |
| 7 | Estrela da Amadora B | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 35:31 | 30 |
| 8 | Lagoa | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 26:35 | 30 |
| 9 | Industria | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 35:42 | 29 |
| 10 | Fabril do Barreiro | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 21:32 | 27 |
| 11 | Moura AC | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 27:50 | 26 |
| 12 | Operario | 26 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 22:43 | 23 |
| 13 | FC Barreirense | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 31:47 | 22 |
| 14 | Estrela Vendas Novas | 26 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 12:66 | 5 |
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2024/2025 (Promotion Group)
