Sport Picks

Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025

Estrela Vendas Novas

1 - 4

Fabril do Barreiro

Our Tip

Match Events

Mendonca C.

19'

Mendonca C.

32'

Fernandes M.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025 game between Estrela Vendas Novas and Fabril do Barreiro finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Fabril do Barreiro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

Estrela Vendas Novas

Draws

90%

Fabril do Barreiro

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Fabril do Barreiro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Look at the last few games and Fabril do Barreiro come out ahead of Estrela Vendas Novas on wins alone.
Model gives Fabril do Barreiro a 90% chance of winning this.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%

Estrela Vendas Novas Clean Sheet 15%

Fabril do Barreiro Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Estrela Vendas Novas	Fabril do Barreiro
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	2	7
Draws	2	11
Losses	26	12
Goals Scored	0.63	0.88
Goals Conceded	2.25	0.88
Expected Goals (xG)	0.63	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.25	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 16, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D

Estrela Vendas Novas vs Fabril do Barreiro

Possession: 52% - 45% Cards: 1 - 3

1:4

Nov 30, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D

Fabril do Barreiro vs Estrela Vendas Novas

Possession: 41% - 48% Cards: 1 - 1

3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Estrela Vendas Novas Compare

Top Goalscorer Carrasco J.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.48

Avg xA / game 0.32

Fabril do Barreiro Compare

Top Goalscorer Mendonca C.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Fernandes M.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Estrela Vendas Novas 10 / 100

Fabril do Barreiro 95 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Estrela Vendas Novas Fabril do Barreiro

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FAB Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

Fabril do Barreiro let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Estrela Vendas Novas's goal record stands at 43% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Estrela Vendas Novas VS Fabril do Barreiro

0.63 Goals Scored 0.88

2.25 Goals Conceded 0.88

75% Over 1.5 38%

75% Over 2.5 25%

25% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lusitano GC	26	18	4	4	57:14	58
2	Amora	26	17	6	3	41:19	57
3	Sintrense	26	16	4	6	39:26	52
4	Moncarapachense	26	15	6	5	39:19	51
5	Louletano	26	15	5	6	44:20	50
6	Serpa	26	13	6	7	42:27	45
7	Estrela da Amadora B	26	7	9	10	35:31	30
8	Lagoa	26	7	9	10	26:35	30
9	Industria	26	8	5	13	35:42	29
10	Fabril do Barreiro	26	6	9	11	21:32	27
11	Moura AC	26	7	5	14	27:50	26
12	Operario	26	6	5	15	22:43	23
13	FC Barreirense	26	5	7	14	31:47	22
14	Estrela Vendas Novas	26	1	2	23	12:66	5