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Ethiopia vs Senegal - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations Bahir Dar Stadium, Bahir Dar
Ethiopia Logo

Ethiopia

0 - 1
FT
Senegal Logo

Senegal

Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Mbaye I.
Assist: Jackson N.
19'
Gueye P.
46'
Sub
Yalew A. In: Belay B.
Out: Yalew A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. This leg finished 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Ethiopia
20%
Draws
40%
Senegal
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Ethiopia haven't matched Senegal's recent run of results.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Senegal taking it.
  • Senegal arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Senegal, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.2%
Ethiopia Clean Sheet 20%
Senegal Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ethiopia Senegal
Matches Played 29 45
Wins 10 27
Draws 5 9
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 1.07 1.91
Goals Conceded 1.24 0.71
Expected Goals (xG) 1.05 0.84
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 29, 2026 Africa Cup of Nations
Ethiopia vs Senegal
0:1
Nov 18, 1965 Africa Cup of Nations
Senegal vs Ethiopia
5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ethiopia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.81
Avg xA / game 0.53

Senegal Compare

Top Goalscorer Mbaye I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.76
Avg xA / game 0.47

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ethiopia 28 / 100
Senegal 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ethiopia Senegal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Senegal Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:7
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Ethiopia remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Ethiopia scored in 55% of their last 29 games.

Senegal let in goals in 38% of their last 45 matches.

Scoring Trends

Ethiopia VS Senegal
0.86 Goals Scored 1.25
0.43 Goals Conceded 1.25
29% Over 1.5 63%
14% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ethiopia

(Home)
29 Sept
Ethiopia
0 : 1
Senegal
25 Sept
Sudan
1 : 0
Ethiopia
09 Jun
Ethiopia
1 : 1
Malawi
06 Jun
Ethiopia
1 : 0
Malawi
31 Mar
Ethiopia
1 : 0
Sao Tome and Principe
Page 1 of 6

Senegal

(Away)
29 Sept
Ethiopia
0 : 1
Senegal
25 Sept
Mozambique
1 : 1
Senegal
01 Jul
Belgium
3 : 2
Senegal
26 Jun
Senegal
5 : 0
Iraq
23 Jun
Norway
3 : 2
Senegal
Page 1 of 9

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Morocco 2 2 0 0 4:0 6
2 Gabon 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
3 Niger 2 1 0 1 2:3 3
4 Lesotho 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Egypt 2 1 1 0 5:0 4
2 Angola 2 1 1 0 3:1 4
3 Malawi 2 1 0 1 3:4 3
4 South Sudan 2 0 0 2 1:7 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ivory Coast 2 2 0 0 4:0 6
2 Gambia 2 2 0 0 6:3 6
3 Somalia 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
4 Ghana 2 0 0 2 2:6 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 South Africa 2 2 0 0 7:1 6
2 Guinea 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
3 Eritrea 2 0 1 1 1:6 1
4 Kenya 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 D.R. Congo 2 2 0 0 4:1 6
2 Zimbabwe 2 1 0 1 4:4 3
3 Equatorial Guinea 2 1 0 1 1:2 3
4 Sierra Leone 2 0 0 2 2:4 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Benin 2 1 1 0 3:2 4
2 Burkina Faso 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
3 Mauritania 2 1 0 1 4:3 3
4 Central Africa 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cameroon 2 1 1 0 4:2 4
2 Comoros 2 1 0 1 2:3 3
3 Namibia 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
4 Congo 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 8)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uganda 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
2 Botswana 2 0 2 0 4:4 2
3 Tunisia 2 0 2 0 3:3 2
4 Libya 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 9)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Algeria 2 1 1 0 5:3 4
2 Zambia 2 1 0 1 3:3 3
3 Togo 2 1 0 1 1:2 3
4 Burundi 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 10)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Senegal 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
2 Mozambique 2 1 1 0 5:2 4
3 Sudan 2 1 0 1 2:4 3
4 Ethiopia 2 0 0 2 0:2 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 11)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rwanda 2 2 0 0 5:2 6
2 Mali 2 2 0 0 4:1 6
3 Cape Verde 2 0 0 2 2:5 0
4 Liberia 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 12)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Guinea Bissau 2 2 0 0 5:0 6
2 Nigeria 2 1 0 1 2:4 3
3 Tanzania 2 0 1 1 1:3 1
4 Madagascar 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)