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Ethiopia vs Uganda

World World

Friendly International 2022
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International 2022 game between Ethiopia and Uganda finished 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Ethiopia
20%
Draws
23%
Uganda
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ethiopia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Uganda come out ahead of Ethiopia on wins alone.
  • Ethiopia are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.2%
Ethiopia Clean Sheet 20%
Uganda Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ethiopia Uganda
Matches Played 29 26
Wins 11 13
Draws 5 3
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.14 1.31
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 21, 2022 Friendly International
Ethiopia vs Uganda
0:0
Aug 29, 2021 Friendly International
Ethiopia vs Uganda
2:1
Oct 13, 2019 Friendly International
Ethiopia vs Uganda
0:1
Dec 10, 2017 CECAFA Championship
Ethiopia vs Uganda
1:1
Jun 3, 2017 Friendly International
Ethiopia vs Uganda
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ethiopia 67 / 100
Uganda 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ethiopia Uganda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ethiopia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Ethiopia stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Uganda's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Ethiopia scored in 59% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Uganda conceded in 58% of 26 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Ethiopia VS Uganda
1 Goals Scored 0.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ethiopia

(Home)
09 Jun
Ethiopia
1 : 1
Malawi
06 Jun
Ethiopia
1 : 0
Malawi
31 Mar
Ethiopia
1 : 0
Sao Tome and Principe
27 Mar
Sao Tome and Principe
0 : 3
Ethiopia
12 Oct
Burkina Faso
3 : 1
Ethiopia
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Uganda

(Away)
30 Dec
Uganda
1 : 3
Nigeria
27 Dec
Uganda
1 : 1
Tanzania
23 Dec
Tunisia
3 : 1
Uganda
18 Nov
Morocco
4 : 0
Uganda
14 Nov
Uganda
2 : 1
Chad
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