Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ethiopian Insurance vs Mlandege

Africa Africa

CAF Champions League 2025/2026 Addis Abeba Stadium, Addis Abeba
Ethiopian Insurance Logo

Ethiopian Insurance

2 - 0
FT
Mlandege Logo

Mlandege

Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
57' Event
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-0, with Ethiopian Insurance advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Ethiopian Insurance
15%
Draws
51%
Mlandege
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Mlandege

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Ethiopian Insurance carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Ethiopian Insurance have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Ethiopian Insurance, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 10%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Ethiopian Insurance Clean Sheet 20%
Mlandege Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ethiopian Insurance Mlandege
Matches Played 31 14
Wins 9 2
Draws 12 4
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 0.94 0.79
Goals Conceded 0.87 1.71
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2025 CAF Champions League
Mlandege vs Ethiopian Insurance
3:2
Sep 20, 2025 CAF Champions League
Ethiopian Insurance vs Mlandege
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ethiopian Insurance 32 / 100
Mlandege 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ethiopian Insurance Mlandege

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

Ethiopian Insurance scored in 61% of their last 31 games.

Mlandege's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 14 matches.

Difficult form: Mlandege registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ethiopian Insurance VS -
1.13 Goals Scored 0
0.75 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
0% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ethiopian Insurance

(Home)
01 Jul
Fasil Kenema
1 : 0
Ethiopian Insurance
27 Jun
Ethiopian Insurance
0 : 3
Shire Endaselassie
21 Jun
Mechal SC
1 : 0
Ethiopian Insurance
14 Jun
Ethiopian Insurance
1 : 0
Dire Dawa
30 May
Welwalo Adigrat
1 : 1
Ethiopian Insurance
Page 1 of 7

Mlandege

(Away)
31 Dec
Mlandege
0 : 1
Uganda Revenue
27 Sept
Mlandege
3 : 2
Ethiopian Insurance
20 Sept
Ethiopian Insurance
2 : 0
Mlandege
08 Sept
Bumamuru
0 : 3
Mlandege
06 Sept
Mlandege
0 : 2
APR
Page 1 of 3

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Aigle Noir 1
ASAS 1
TBD -
Al Ahly -
Ethiopian Insurance 4
Mlandege 3
APR 0
Pyramids 5
Mogadishu City 3
Police FC 3
Jamus 0
Al Hilal Omdurman 1
Rahimo 1
Mangasport 0
ASFAN 1
Esperance Tunis 7
Dadje 0
Al Ahly Tripoli 1
ASC Kara 2
Berkane 4
East End Lions 1
Monastir 7
Bibiani Gold Stars 0
Kabylie 7
Fundacion Bata 0
Nouadhibou 2
Tempete MOCAF 0
Stade Malien 7
Al Hilal Benghazi 1
Horoya 2
Real Banjul 1
FAR Rabat 4
Colombe 1
ASC Jaraaf 0
FC Fassell 0
MC Alger 3
Remo Stars 5
US Zilimadjou 0
TBD -
Mamelodi Sundowns -
Simba Bhora 1
Nsingizini Hotspurs 2
Gaborone Utd 1
Simba 2
Elgeco Plus 1
Silver Strikers 1
Wiliete 0
Young Africans 5
Cote d'Or 1
Stade d'Abidjan 5
Cercle De Joachim 0
Petro Atletico 6
Leopard 0
Associacao Black Bulls 1
Aigles du Congo 0
Rivers United 1
African Stars 0
Vipers 2
Power Dynamos 2
ASEC Mimosas 1
St Eloi Lupopo 1
Al Merreikh 0
Lioli FC 0
Orlando Pirates 7
Final
Aigle Noir 0
Al Ahly 2
Ethiopian Insurance 1
Pyramids 3
Police FC 1
Al Hilal Omdurman 4
Rahimo 0
Esperance Tunis 4
Al Ahly Tripoli 2
Berkane 3
Monastir 1
Kabylie 5
Nouadhibou 1
Stade Malien 3
Horoya 1
FAR Rabat 4
Colombe 1
MC Alger 1
Remo Stars 1
Mamelodi Sundowns 7
Nsingizini Hotspurs 0
Simba 3
Silver Strikers 1
Young Africans 2
Stade d'Abidjan 0
Petro Atletico 4
Associacao Black Bulls 2
Rivers United 3
Vipers 2
Power Dynamos 3
St Eloi Lupopo 4
Orlando Pirates 3