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Etoile de L'Est vs Bugesera

Rwanda Rwanda

Premier League 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

36' Event
Byiringiro D.
39' Event
Dukundane P.
49' Event
Ruhinda F.

AI Match Summary

Bugesera in this Premier League 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bugesera.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Etoile de L'Est
20%
Draws
40%
Bugesera
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Bugesera have won more games recently than Etoile de L'Est.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular Premier League 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Bugesera have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22.4%
Etoile de L'Est Clean Sheet 68%
Bugesera Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Etoile de L'Est Bugesera
Matches Played 30 35
Wins 9 15
Draws 5 4
Losses 16 16
Goals Scored 0.67 1.06
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.11
Expected Goals (xG) 0.48 1.29
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 11, 2024 Premier League
Etoile de L'Est vs Bugesera
0:3
Dec 12, 2023 Premier League
Bugesera vs Etoile de L'Est
2:0
Apr 23, 2022 Premier League
Etoile de L'Est vs Bugesera
0:1
Dec 17, 2021 Premier League
Bugesera vs Etoile de L'Est
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Etoile de L'Est Compare

Avg xG / game 0.37
Avg xA / game 0.24

Bugesera Compare

Top Goalscorer Byiringiro D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Dukundane P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.17
Avg xA / game 0.72

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Etoile de L'Est 42 / 100
Bugesera 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Etoile de L'Est Bugesera

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Bugesera conceded in 63% of 35 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.50 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Bugesera registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Etoile de L'Est found the back of the net in 50% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

Etoile de L'Est VS Bugesera
0.33 Goals Scored 1.25
1.33 Goals Conceded 0.63
67% Over 1.5 63%
33% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Etoile de L'Est

(Home)
15 Sept
Etoile de L'Est
1 : 2
Gicumbi
12 Sept
Etoile de L'Est
0 : 0
Kigali FC
05 Sept
Amagaju
2 : 0
Etoile de L'Est
11 May
Etoile de L'Est
0 : 3
Bugesera
04 May
Police
1 : 2
Etoile de L'Est
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Bugesera

(Away)
15 Sept
Kiyovu
1 : 0
Bugesera
30 May
Rutsiro
0 : 2
Bugesera
26 May
Rayon Sport
2 : 0
Bugesera
16 May
Mukura Victory Sports
2 : 2
Bugesera
09 May
Gicumbi
2 : 1
Bugesera
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 APR 30 19 11 0 47:17 68
2 Rayon Sport 30 17 6 7 42:25 57
3 Musanze 30 16 5 9 34:24 53
4 Mukura Victory Sports 30 13 8 9 39:32 47
5 Kigali FC 30 12 9 9 26:25 45
6 Kiyovu 30 11 11 8 38:34 44
7 Police 30 12 3 15 35:34 39
8 Amagaju 30 10 9 11 30:31 39
9 Gasogi United 30 10 6 14 31:34 36
10 Gorilla 30 9 8 13 26:33 35
11 Marines 30 9 8 13 32:42 35
12 Muhazi United 30 7 12 11 21:29 33
13 Bugesera 30 7 11 12 37:35 32
14 Etincelles 30 8 8 14 35:44 32
15 Sunrise 30 9 5 16 25:40 32
16 Etoile de L'Est 30 9 4 17 20:39 31
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2023/2024 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2024/2025 (Qualification)