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Etoile de L'Est vs Police

Rwanda Rwanda

Premier League 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event
Mugisha D.
57' Event
Ndizeye S.
90' Event
Molo I.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2023/2024 game between Etoile de L'Est and Police finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Police.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Etoile de L'Est
20%
Draws
40%
Police
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Police's 0.86 goals per match outpaces what Etoile de L'Est have produced (0.66).
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Premier League 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Police have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 48%
Over 2.5 Goals 17%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 23.6%
Etoile de L'Est Clean Sheet 26%
Police Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Etoile de L'Est Police
Matches Played 29 35
Wins 9 9
Draws 5 15
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 0.66 0.86
Goals Conceded 1.21 0.69
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 0.78
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2024 Premier League
Police vs Etoile de L'Est
1:2
Dec 8, 2023 Premier League
Etoile de L'Est vs Police
0:3
Feb 13, 2022 Premier League
Police vs Etoile de L'Est
6:0
Oct 31, 2021 Premier League
Etoile de L'Est vs Police
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Etoile de L'Est Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

Police Compare

Top Goalscorer Mugisha D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ndizeye S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.71
Avg xA / game 0.43

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Etoile de L'Est 38 / 100
Police 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Etoile de L'Est Police

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Police Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.75 goals.

Etoile de L'Est has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Etoile de L'Est found the back of the net in 48% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Police conceded in 57% of 35 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Etoile de L'Est VS Police
0 Goals Scored 0.88
0.67 Goals Conceded 0.88
33% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Etoile de L'Est

(Home)
12 Sept
Etoile de L'Est
0 : 0
Kigali FC
05 Sept
Amagaju
2 : 0
Etoile de L'Est
11 May
Etoile de L'Est
0 : 3
Bugesera
04 May
Police
1 : 2
Etoile de L'Est
28 Apr
Etoile de L'Est
1 : 0
Marines
Page 1 of 6

Police

(Away)
07 Sept
Police
1 : 2
Gicumbi
30 Aug
Kiyovu
1 : 0
Police
27 Aug
Rayon Sport
0 : 1
Police
28 May
Gasogi United
0 : 1
Police
24 May
Police
0 : 0
Kiyovu
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 APR 30 19 11 0 47:17 68
2 Rayon Sport 30 17 6 7 42:25 57
3 Musanze 30 16 5 9 34:24 53
4 Mukura Victory Sports 30 13 8 9 39:32 47
5 Kigali FC 30 12 9 9 26:25 45
6 Kiyovu 30 11 11 8 38:34 44
7 Police 30 12 3 15 35:34 39
8 Amagaju 30 10 9 11 30:31 39
9 Gasogi United 30 10 6 14 31:34 36
10 Gorilla 30 9 8 13 26:33 35
11 Marines 30 9 8 13 32:42 35
12 Muhazi United 30 7 12 11 21:29 33
13 Bugesera 30 7 11 12 37:35 32
14 Etincelles 30 8 8 14 35:44 32
15 Sunrise 30 9 5 16 25:40 32
16 Etoile de L'Est 30 9 4 17 20:39 31
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2023/2024 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2024/2025 (Qualification)