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Etoile Sahel vs Monastir - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Tunisia Tunisia

Ligue Professionnelle 1 2025/2026 Stade Olympique de Sousse, Sousse
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Anane R.
Assist: Dhaoui M.
44'
Chouchane M.
63'
Sub
Senghor M. In: Chaabani M.
Out: Senghor M.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue Professionnelle 1 2025/2026 game between Etoile Sahel and Monastir finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Etoile Sahel.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Etoile Sahel
30%
Draws
51%
Monastir
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Monastir

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Etoile Sahel come out ahead of Monastir on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Monastir's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Etoile Sahel Clean Sheet 16%
Monastir Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Etoile Sahel Monastir
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 11
Draws 6 9
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 1.14 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.14 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 7, 2026 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Etoile Sahel vs Monastir
1:0
Sep 13, 2025 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Monastir vs Etoile Sahel
1:1
Feb 2, 2025 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Etoile Sahel vs Monastir
1:0
Sep 26, 2024 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Monastir vs Etoile Sahel
1:0
May 4, 2024 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Etoile Sahel vs Monastir
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Etoile Sahel Compare

Top Goalscorer Anane R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Monastir Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Etoile Sahel 15 / 100
Monastir 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Etoile Sahel Monastir

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Monastir Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Etoile Sahel's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Monastir has conceded goals in 55% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Etoile Sahel stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Etoile Sahel VS Monastir
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Etoile Sahel

(Home)
12 Sept
AS Marsa
1 : 0
Etoile Sahel
06 Sept
Etoile Sahel
1 : 1
Jeunesse Sportive
30 Aug
Etoile Sahel
2 : 1
Metlaoui
23 Aug
Esperance Tunis
3 : 2
Etoile Sahel
14 May
CS Sfaxien
3 : 1
Etoile Sahel
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Monastir

(Away)
16 Sept
Zarzis
1 : 2
Monastir
12 Sept
Monastir
3 : 3
Ben Guerdane
29 Aug
Monastir
2 : 1
Stade Tunisien
22 Aug
Hamam-Sousse
0 : 0
Monastir
14 May
Monastir
3 : 0
Soliman
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Club Africain 30 19 9 2 43:10 66
2 Esperance Tunis 30 18 9 3 45:11 63
3 CS Sfaxien 30 18 8 4 44:13 62
4 Stade Tunisien 30 12 12 6 28:14 48
5 Monastir 30 11 12 7 28:19 45
6 Zarzis 30 11 8 11 30:28 41
7 Etoile Sahel 30 11 8 11 28:30 41
8 Metlaoui 30 9 13 8 19:25 40
9 Jeunesse Sportive 30 10 6 14 24:33 36
10 Ben Guerdane 30 8 11 11 18:22 35
11 AS Marsa 30 11 2 17 26:33 35
12 CA Bizertin 30 8 9 13 18:29 33
13 Olympique Beja 30 9 5 16 18:39 32
14 JS Kairouan 30 9 4 17 20:41 31
15 Soliman 30 6 9 15 15:31 27
16 AS Gabes 30 3 9 18 11:37 18
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)