Sport Picks

Stadium Background

ETSV Hamburg vs Alsterbruder

Germany Germany

Oberliga Hamburg 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Duzguner V.
32' Event
Petrick B.
35' Event
Verinac A.

AI Match Summary

ETSV Hamburg in this Oberliga Hamburg 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored ETSV Hamburg.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
ETSV Hamburg
15%
Draws
28%
Alsterbruder
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: ETSV Hamburg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • ETSV Hamburg have won more games recently than Alsterbruder.
  • ETSV Hamburg are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Oberliga Hamburg 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors ETSV Hamburg here — 4 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
ETSV Hamburg Clean Sheet 20%
Alsterbruder Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric ETSV Hamburg Alsterbruder
Matches Played 27 30
Wins 17 6
Draws 4 4
Losses 6 20
Goals Scored 3.22 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.22 2.6
Expected Goals (xG) 2.60 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2025 Oberliga Hamburg
ETSV Hamburg vs Alsterbruder
4:0
Aug 25, 2024 Oberliga Hamburg
Alsterbruder vs ETSV Hamburg
0:6
Feb 11, 2024 Oberliga Hamburg
ETSV Hamburg vs Alsterbruder
2:1
Sep 3, 2023 Oberliga Hamburg
Alsterbruder vs ETSV Hamburg
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

ETSV Hamburg Compare

Top Goalscorer Duzguner V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Petrick B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2
Avg xA / game 1.3

Alsterbruder Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

ETSV Hamburg 40 / 100
Alsterbruder 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
ETSV Hamburg Alsterbruder

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ETSV Hamburg Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: ETSV Hamburg scored in 96% of their last 27 outings.

Alsterbruder has conceded goals in 93% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 4.25 goals.

Away concern: Alsterbruder has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

ETSV Hamburg VS -
4 Goals Scored 0
0.5 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

ETSV Hamburg

(Home)
27 Sept
ETSV Hamburg
2 : 1
Tesla Hamburg
11 Sept
ETSV Hamburg
2 : 3
Harksheide
28 Aug
ETSV Hamburg
1 : 4
TSV Buchholz 08
21 Aug
ETSV Hamburg
2 : 3
HEBC Hamburg
14 Aug
TSV Concordia
1 : 4
ETSV Hamburg
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Alsterbruder

(Away)
16 May
TSV Concordia
2 : 5
Alsterbruder
10 May
Alsterbruder
1 : 4
Paloma
25 Apr
Suderelbe
3 : 2
Alsterbruder
13 Apr
Alsterbruder
1 : 2
Sasel
04 Apr
Eimsbutteler
4 : 2
Alsterbruder
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Altona 34 25 7 2 99:30 82
2 Dassendorf 34 26 4 4 98:32 82
3 Eimsbutteler 34 22 4 8 96:48 70
4 Paloma 34 22 4 8 84:54 70
5 ETSV Hamburg 34 20 3 11 96:50 63
6 Niendorfer TSV 34 18 7 9 78:44 61
7 HEBC Hamburg 34 16 5 13 56:45 53
8 Vorwarts-Wacker 34 15 5 14 86:97 50
9 TSV Buchholz 08 34 14 4 16 70:76 46
10 Suderelbe 34 13 5 16 70:83 44
11 SC Victoria Hamburg 34 12 5 17 69:73 41
12 Sasel 34 11 7 16 60:73 40
13 Turkiye Wilhelmsburg 34 10 6 18 73:94 36
14 Harksheide 34 9 8 17 63:89 35
15 Halstenbek-Rellingen 34 10 5 19 53:83 35
16 TSV Concordia 34 8 5 21 47:88 29
17 Alsterbruder 34 7 4 23 37:90 25
18 Hamburger III 34 3 2 29 45:131 11
Promotion - Oberliga NOFV-Nord 2024/2025 (Play Offs)