Sport Picks

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Everton vs Burnley

England England

Premier League 2025/2026 Hill Dickinson Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

32' Event
Tarkowski J.
Assist: Garner J.
57'
Sub
Worrall J. In: Tchaouna L.
Out: Worrall J.
57'
Sub
Florentino In: Ward-Prowse J.
Out: Florentino

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Everton and Burnley finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Everton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Everton
33%
Draws
27%
Burnley
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Everton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Everton carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Everton are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Everton have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Everton Clean Sheet 68%
Burnley Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Everton Burnley
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 10 2
Draws 7 10
Losses 12 19
Goals Scored 1.63 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.88 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 3, 2026 Premier League
Everton vs Burnley
2:0
Dec 27, 2025 Premier League
Burnley vs Everton
0:0
Apr 6, 2024 Premier League
Everton vs Burnley
1:0
Dec 16, 2023 Premier League
Burnley vs Everton
0:2
Nov 1, 2023 EFL Cup
Everton vs Burnley
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Everton Compare

Top Goalscorer Tarkowski J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Dewsbury-Hall K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Burnley Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Everton 50 / 100
Burnley 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Everton Burnley

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EVE Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Burnley's defensive record shows goals conceded in 94% of 31 matches.

Everton scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Burnley's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Everton VS Burnley
1.63 Goals Scored 0.75
1.88 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Arsenal38267571:2785
2Manchester City38239677:3578
3Manchester United382011769:5071
4Aston Villa381981156:4965
5Liverpool381791263:5360
6Bournemouth381318758:5457
7Sunderland3814121242:4854
8Brighton3814111352:4653
9Brentford3814111355:5253
10Chelsea3814101458:5252
11Fulham381571647:5152
12Newcastle Utd381471753:5549
13Everton3813101547:5049
14Leeds3811141349:5647
15Crystal Palace3811121541:5145
16Nottingham3811111648:5144
17Tottenham3810111748:5741
18West Ham381091946:6539
19Burnley384102438:7522
20Wolves383112427:6820