Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Everton vs Burnley

England England

Premier League 2025/2026 Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool
Our Tip

Match Events

32' Event
Tarkowski J.
Assist: Garner J.
57'
Sub
Worrall J. In: Tchaouna L.
Out: Worrall J.
57'
Sub
Florentino In: Ward-Prowse J.
Out: Florentino

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Everton and Burnley finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Everton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Everton
11%
Draws
9%
Burnley
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Everton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Everton carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Everton are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Everton have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Everton Clean Sheet 68%
Burnley Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Everton Burnley
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 9 2
Draws 7 10
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 1.5 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.63 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 3, 2026 Premier League
Everton vs Burnley
2:0
Dec 27, 2025 Premier League
Burnley vs Everton
0:0
Apr 6, 2024 Premier League
Everton vs Burnley
1:0
Dec 16, 2023 Premier League
Burnley vs Everton
0:2
Nov 1, 2023 EFL Cup
Everton vs Burnley
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Everton Compare

Top Goalscorer Tarkowski J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Dewsbury-Hall K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Burnley Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Everton 86 / 100
Burnley 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Everton Burnley

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EVE Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Burnley's defensive record shows goals conceded in 93% of 28 matches.

Everton scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Everton stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Everton VS Burnley
1.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Everton

(Home)
18 Jul
Dundee FC
0 : 4
Everton
24 May
Tottenham
1 : 0
Everton
17 May
Everton
1 : 3
Sunderland
10 May
Crystal Palace
2 : 2
Everton
04 May
Everton
3 : 3
Manchester City
Page 1 of 6

Burnley

(Away)
16 Jul
Real Salt Lake
4 : 1
Burnley
12 Jul
Columbus Crew
1 : 1
Burnley
10 Jul
FC Cincinnati
3 : 1
Burnley
24 May
Burnley
1 : 1
Wolves
18 May
Arsenal
1 : 0
Burnley
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Arsenal38267571:2785
2Manchester City38239677:3578
3Manchester United382011769:5071
4Aston Villa381981156:4965
5Liverpool381791263:5360
6Bournemouth381318758:5457
7Sunderland3814121242:4854
8Brighton3814111352:4653
9Brentford3814111355:5253
10Chelsea3814101458:5252
11Fulham381571647:5152
12Newcastle Utd381471753:5549
13Everton3813101547:5049
14Leeds3811141349:5647
15Crystal Palace3811121541:5145
16Nottingham3811111648:5144
17Tottenham3810111748:5741
18West Ham381091946:6539
19Burnley384102438:7522
20Wolves383112427:6820
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Relegation - Championship (Main)