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Everton vs Chelsea - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

Premier League Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
11:30 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Everton host Chelsea in the Premier League. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Recent numbers: Everton at 1.5 goals for, 1.17 against; Chelsea at 1.94 for, 1.88 against. Past meetings favor Chelsea slightly — 1-3-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 21, 2026, ending 3:0. xG projections (1.75 - 2.06) back Chelsea to edge this. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Everton
35%
Draws
28%
Chelsea
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Everton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Chelsea come out ahead of Everton on wins alone.
  • Everton are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Everton Clean Sheet 10%
Chelsea Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Everton Chelsea
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 11 13
Draws 10 4
Losses 9 15
Goals Scored 1.5 1.94
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Premier League
Everton vs Chelsea
3:0
Dec 13, 2025 Premier League
Chelsea vs Everton
2:0
Apr 26, 2025 Premier League
Chelsea vs Everton
1:0
Dec 22, 2024 Premier League
Everton vs Chelsea
0:0
Apr 15, 2024 Premier League
Chelsea vs Everton
6:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Everton 56 / 100
Chelsea 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Everton Chelsea

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Everton Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Everton scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Chelsea has conceded goals in 84% of their last 32 outings.

Recent resilience: Everton stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Scoring Trends

Everton VS Chelsea
1.75 Goals Scored 3.13
1 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Everton

(Home)
19 Sept
Everton
1 : 0
Ipswich
16 Sept
Everton
1 : 0
Wolves
12 Sept
Tottenham
0 : 0
Everton
06 Sept
Everton
2 : 2
Manchester United
29 Aug
Bournemouth
1 : 1
Everton
Page 1 of 6

Chelsea

(Away)
18 Sept
Brentford
3 : 0
Chelsea
12 Sept
Chelsea
2 : 2
Hull City
09 Sept
Chelsea
6 : 3
Leeds
06 Sept
Arsenal
2 : 1
Chelsea
30 Aug
Chelsea
4 : 3
Brighton
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Manchester City 5 5 0 0 13:5 15
2 Arsenal 5 4 0 1 8:4 12
3 Brighton 5 3 1 1 16:5 10
4 Brentford 5 2 3 0 10:4 9
5 Leeds 5 2 3 0 7:3 9
6 Liverpool 5 2 3 0 7:4 9
7 Everton 5 2 3 0 6:3 9
8 Hull City 5 2 2 1 6:4 8
9 Newcastle Utd 5 2 2 1 9:9 8
10 Chelsea 5 2 1 2 10:12 7
11 Ipswich 5 2 0 3 7:11 6
12 Manchester United 5 1 2 2 8:8 5
13 Nottingham 5 1 2 2 4:5 5
14 Sunderland 5 1 1 3 6:10 4
15 Crystal Palace 5 1 1 3 6:11 4
16 Aston Villa 5 1 1 3 4:9 4
17 Bournemouth 5 0 3 2 6:8 3
18 Coventry 5 1 0 4 1:10 3
19 Fulham 5 0 2 3 5:8 2
20 Tottenham 5 0 2 3 2:8 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Championship 2027/2028 (Main)