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Everton vs La Serena - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Chile Chile

Liga de Primera Estadio Sausalito, Vina del Mar
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
03:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Everton host La Serena in the Liga de Primera. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Everton have averaged 1.55 scored and 1.24 conceded recently, against La Serena's 1.38 scored and 2.1 conceded. Past meetings favor Everton slightly — 3-2-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 11, 2026, ending 1:0. Model xG sits at 1.81 vs 1.44, favoring Everton. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Everton
20%
Draws
47%
La Serena
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: La Serena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Everton come out ahead of La Serena on wins alone.
  • Model gives Everton a 33% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Everton Clean Sheet 16%
La Serena Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Everton La Serena
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 7
Draws 9 9
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.55 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.24 2.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Liga de Primera
La Serena vs Everton
1:0
Aug 28, 2025 Liga de Primera
Everton vs La Serena
3:1
Apr 13, 2025 Liga de Primera
La Serena vs Everton
2:1
Aug 27, 2022 Liga de Primera
Everton vs La Serena
4:0
Apr 1, 2022 Liga de Primera
La Serena vs Everton
1:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Everton 39 / 100
La Serena 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Everton La Serena

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Everton Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Everton scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: La Serena conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

Everton went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Everton VS La Serena
2.25 Goals Scored 1.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Everton

(Home)
27 Sept
U. De Chile
1 : 1
Everton
27 Sept
Everton
0 : 1
U. De Chile
12 Sept
Nublense
1 : 3
Everton
05 Sept
Everton
0 : 1
U. Catolica
29 Aug
Limache
0 : 3
Everton
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La Serena

(Away)
13 Sept
La Serena
0 : 3
U. De Chile
06 Sept
La Serena
2 : 1
Nublense
31 Aug
Union La Calera
0 : 1
La Serena
23 Aug
La Serena
3 : 3
Cobresal
14 Aug
U. De Concepcion
0 : 2
La Serena
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Colo Colo 23 17 3 3 48:22 54
2 U. Catolica 23 13 3 7 50:33 42
3 U. De Chile 23 12 6 5 35:19 42
4 Everton 23 10 6 7 37:25 36
5 Palestino 23 11 3 9 36:33 36
6 Limache 23 10 3 10 43:35 33
7 Nublense 23 8 8 7 28:31 32
8 D. Concepcion 23 9 4 10 25:26 31
9 Huachipato 23 9 4 10 32:39 31
10 La Serena 23 7 9 7 34:38 30
11 Coquimbo 23 8 5 10 31:32 29
12 A. Italiano 23 7 7 9 26:31 28
13 O Higgins 23 8 3 12 28:36 27
14 Cobresal 23 7 3 13 34:44 24
15 U. De Concepcion 23 6 4 13 17:39 22
16 Union La Calera 23 4 5 14 19:40 17
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga de Ascenso 2027 (Main)