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Excelsior 31 vs Watergraafsmeer - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Netherlands Netherlands

Derde Divisie 2024/2025
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Match Events

48' Event
Hemmink R.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with Excelsior 31 advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Excelsior 31
20%
Draws
28%
Watergraafsmeer
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Excelsior 31

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Excelsior 31 come out ahead of Watergraafsmeer on wins alone.
  • Excelsior 31 are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Excelsior 31 have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Excelsior 31, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 82%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 82%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Excelsior 31 Clean Sheet 10%
Watergraafsmeer Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Excelsior 31 Watergraafsmeer
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 17 8
Draws 6 4
Losses 9 18
Goals Scored 2.03 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.31 2.33
Expected Goals (xG) 2.75 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 7, 2025 Derde Divisie
Watergraafsmeer vs Excelsior 31
2:2
Jun 4, 2025 Derde Divisie
Excelsior 31 vs Watergraafsmeer
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Excelsior 31 Compare

Top Goalscorer Hemmink R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.12
Avg xA / game 1.38

Watergraafsmeer Compare

Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Excelsior 31 83 / 100
Watergraafsmeer 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Excelsior 31 Watergraafsmeer

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Excelsior 31 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Excelsior 31's goal record stands at 88% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Watergraafsmeer let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Excelsior 31 has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Excelsior 31 VS Watergraafsmeer
2.5 Goals Scored 2.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 3
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
63% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Excelsior 31

(Home)
03 Oct
Sportlust
0 : 3
Excelsior 31
26 Sept
Excelsior 31
3 : 0
VV DOVO
22 Sept
Excelsior 31
4 : 3
Alkmaarse FC 1934
19 Sept
VV Hoogeveen
0 : 2
Excelsior 31
12 Sept
Excelsior 31
1 : 1
Purmersteijn
Page 1 of 7

Watergraafsmeer

(Away)
23 Sept
Watergraafsmeer
5 : 4
TEC
02 Sept
Dongen
2 : 4
Watergraafsmeer
30 May
Watergraafsmeer
2 : 3
NEO
27 May
NEO
3 : 0
Watergraafsmeer
07 Jun
Watergraafsmeer
2 : 2
Excelsior 31
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Kampong 5
Ajax (Am) 2
VV SJC 2
Staphorst 6
Flevo Boys 1
Excelsior 31 8
Heino 0
Watergraafsmeer 1
SV Poortugaal 2
FC 's-Gravenzande 5
RKAVV Leidschendam 1
Groene Ster 2
Roosendaal 5
OJC Rosmalen 3
SV Orion 2
Xerxes DZB 3
Final
Kampong 2
Staphorst 4
Excelsior 31 3
Watergraafsmeer 2
FC 's-Gravenzande 3
Groene Ster 5
Roosendaal 5
Xerxes DZB 2