Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Excelsior vs PSV

Netherlands Netherlands

Eredivisie Stadion Woudestein, Rotterdam
Sat, Aug 15, 2026
VS
06:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Excelsior host PSV in the Eredivisie. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Recent numbers: Excelsior at 2.75 goals for, 1.25 against; PSV at 3.63 for, 1.75 against. Head-to-head, Excelsior have won 0 to PSV's 5, with 0 draws. They last met on Jan 10, 2026, ending 5:1. xG projections (2.25 - 2.44) back PSV to edge this. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Excelsior
33%
Draws
27%
PSV
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Excelsior

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and PSV come out ahead of Excelsior on wins alone.
  • Excelsior are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Eredivisie form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).
  • History favors PSV here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 37%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81%
Excelsior Clean Sheet 10%
PSV Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Excelsior PSV
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 11 21
Draws 8 3
Losses 10 7
Goals Scored 2.75 3.63
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 2.75 3.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 10, 2026 Eredivisie
PSV vs Excelsior
5:1
Sep 27, 2025 Eredivisie
Excelsior vs PSV
1:2
Jan 14, 2025 KNVB Beker
PSV vs Excelsior
5:4
Apr 2, 2024 Eredivisie
Excelsior vs PSV
0:2
Jan 13, 2024 Eredivisie
PSV vs Excelsior
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Excelsior 38 / 100
PSV 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Excelsior PSV

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EXC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Excelsior scored in 86% of their last 29 games.

PSV has conceded goals in 84% of their last 31 outings.

H2H data points to 4.80 goals as a typical output.

Excelsior has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Excelsior VS PSV
2.75 Goals Scored 3.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 88%
75% Over 3.5 88%

Recent Form & Match History

Excelsior

(Home)
24 Jul
Heracles
3 : 5
Excelsior
18 Jul
NAC Breda
1 : 3
Excelsior
11 Jul
Dordrecht
0 : 2
Excelsior
04 Jul
Excelsior
3 : 2
Cambuur
17 May
Sparta Rotterdam
2 : 3
Excelsior
Page 1 of 6

PSV

(Away)
28 Jul
PSV
3 : 0
Eindhoven FC
25 Jul
PSV
1 : 3
Villarreal
18 Jul
PSV
7 : 3
Royale Union SG
11 Jul
PSV
3 : 2
Rakow Czestochowa
04 Jul
PSV
1 : 1
Antwerp
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Cambuur00000:00
2Sittard00000:00
3Telstar00000:00
4Zwolle00000:00
5PSV00000:00
6Ajax00000:00
7Twente00000:00
8Heerenveen00000:00
9Feyenoord00000:00
10Nijmegen00000:00
11Utrecht00000:00
12AZ Alkmaar00000:00
13Sparta Rotterdam00000:00
14Willem II00000:00
15Excelsior00000:00
16Den Haag00000:00
17G.A. Eagles00000:00
18Groningen00000:00
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie 2027/2028 (Main)