Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Excelsior vs PSV - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Netherlands Netherlands

Eredivisie Stadion Woudestein, Rotterdam
Excelsior Logo

Excelsior

1 - 2
FT
PSV Logo

PSV

Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
van Bommel R.
46'
Sub
Sliti A. In: Martens N.
Out: Sliti A.
46'
Sub
Silva Timas I. In: Turay O.
Out: Silva Timas I.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Eredivisie game between Excelsior and PSV finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward PSV.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Excelsior
15%
Draws
59%
PSV
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: PSV

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and PSV come out ahead of Excelsior on wins alone.
  • PSV are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Eredivisie form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors PSV here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 40.8%
Excelsior Clean Sheet 10%
PSV Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Excelsior PSV
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 12 17
Draws 5 5
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.93 2.73
Goals Conceded 1.86 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 2.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 Eredivisie
Excelsior vs PSV
1:2
Jan 10, 2026 Eredivisie
PSV vs Excelsior
5:1
Sep 27, 2025 Eredivisie
Excelsior vs PSV
1:2
Jan 14, 2025 KNVB Beker
PSV vs Excelsior
5:4
Apr 2, 2024 Eredivisie
Excelsior vs PSV
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Excelsior Compare

Top Goalscorer Widell C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

PSV Compare

Top Goalscorer van Bommel R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pepi R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.1
Avg xA / game 1.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Excelsior 10 / 100
PSV 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Excelsior PSV

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PSV Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:10
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Excelsior scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

PSV has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 4.60 goals as a typical output.

Excelsior has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Excelsior VS PSV
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
3.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Excelsior

(Home)
01 Nov
Excelsior
0 : 9
Twente
28 Oct
Maastricht
0 : 3
Excelsior
25 Oct
Sittard
1 : 0
Excelsior
16 Oct
Heerenveen
4 : 0
Excelsior
11 Oct
Excelsior
1 : 5
Groningen
Page 1 of 6

PSV

(Away)
04 Nov
PSV
1 : 2
Club Brugge
31 Oct
PSV
7 : 0
Willem II
25 Oct
PSV
1 : 1
Feyenoord
20 Oct
FC Porto
0 : 1
PSV
17 Oct
Den Haag
2 : 1
PSV
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Feyenoord 11 7 4 0 33:12 25
2 Ajax 11 7 3 1 30:13 24
3 PSV 11 7 2 2 35:13 23
4 Twente 11 7 2 2 28:10 23
5 AZ Alkmaar 11 6 2 3 20:13 20
6 Sittard 11 5 4 2 18:18 19
7 Heerenveen 11 5 3 3 19:13 18
8 Groningen 11 4 3 4 26:24 15
9 Cambuur 11 4 3 4 23:22 15
10 G.A. Eagles 11 3 5 3 23:27 14
11 Sparta Rotterdam 11 3 3 5 20:26 12
12 Utrecht 11 3 3 5 19:31 12
13 Zwolle 12 3 3 6 13:24 12
14 Nijmegen 11 2 5 4 17:19 11
15 Excelsior 11 3 2 6 16:28 11
16 Telstar 11 2 3 6 16:23 9
17 Den Haag 11 1 3 7 13:24 6
18 Willem II 12 0 3 9 11:40 3
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie 2027/2028 (Main)