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Exeter vs Rotherham - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

League Two St James Park, Exeter
Our Tip

Match Events

43'
Woodhouse L.
51' Event
Scully A.
Assist: Birch G.
58'
Iorfa D.

AI Match Summary

The League Two game between Exeter and Rotherham finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Exeter.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Exeter
20%
Draws
40%
Rotherham
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Rotherham come out ahead of Exeter on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Exeter's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular League Two form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Exeter Clean Sheet 20%
Rotherham Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Exeter Rotherham
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 6 7
Draws 8 9
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 1 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 League Two
Exeter vs Rotherham
1:0
Jan 31, 2026 League One
Exeter vs Rotherham
0:4
Sep 6, 2025 League One
Rotherham vs Exeter
1:0
Mar 15, 2025 League One
Rotherham vs Exeter
1:1
Aug 10, 2024 League One
Exeter vs Rotherham
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Exeter Compare

Top Goalscorer Scully A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Rotherham Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Exeter 49 / 100
Rotherham 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Exeter Rotherham

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Exeter Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rotherham has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Exeter went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Exeter found the back of the net in 59% of recent matches (29 games).

Scoring Trends

Exeter VS Rotherham
0.75 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Exeter

(Home)
06 Oct
Exeter
3 : 2
Oxford Utd
03 Oct
Exeter
1 : 0
Rotherham
26 Sept
Bristol Rovers
1 : 0
Exeter
22 Sept
Cheltenham
3 : 2
Exeter
19 Sept
Exeter
0 : 0
Tranmere
Page 1 of 6

Rotherham

(Away)
06 Oct
Rotherham
0 : 4
Bradford City
03 Oct
Exeter
1 : 0
Rotherham
26 Sept
Rotherham
1 : 1
Crewe
22 Sept
York City
1 : 2
Rotherham
19 Sept
Northampton
0 : 1
Rotherham
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Salford 9 5 1 3 13:10 16
2 Barnet 7 4 3 0 17:10 15
3 Crewe 9 3 6 0 11:7 15
4 Cheltenham 9 4 3 2 16:14 15
5 Bristol Rovers 9 5 0 4 14:14 15
6 York City 8 4 2 2 16:10 14
7 Walsall 8 3 5 0 11:5 14
8 Chesterfield 9 4 2 3 15:12 14
9 Grimsby 9 3 4 2 13:10 13
10 Gillingham 9 3 4 2 11:9 13
11 Rochdale 9 4 1 4 10:11 13
12 Tranmere 9 2 5 2 12:12 11
13 Swindon 9 3 2 4 9:13 11
14 Shrewsbury 9 3 2 4 9:14 11
15 Newport 9 2 4 3 12:12 10
16 Accrington 9 2 4 3 13:14 10
17 Rotherham 9 2 4 3 11:12 10
18 Fleetwood Town 9 2 4 3 9:10 10
19 Colchester 8 2 4 2 10:12 10
20 Exeter 9 2 3 4 5:6 9
21 Oldham 8 2 1 5 9:13 7
22 Northampton 7 1 3 3 3:6 6
23 Port Vale 7 1 2 4 3:9 5
24 Crawley Town 7 1 1 5 6:13 4
Promotion - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League 2027/2028 (Main)