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F. Karagumruk vs Alanyaspor

Turkey Turkey

Super Lig 2025/2026 Ataturk Olimpiyat, Istanbul
Our Tip

Match Events

32' Event
Elia M.
Assist: Hadergjonaj F.
48' Event
Larsson S.
Assist: Kalayci B.
64'
Sub
Ahmed T. In: Babicka S.
Out: Ahmed T.

AI Match Summary

F. Karagumruk in this Super Lig 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored F. Karagumruk.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
F. Karagumruk
33%
Draws
27%
Alanyaspor
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: F. Karagumruk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to F. Karagumruk lately — more wins on the board than Alanyaspor.
  • F. Karagumruk are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Super Lig 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
F. Karagumruk Clean Sheet 20%
Alanyaspor Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric F. Karagumruk Alanyaspor
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 8
Draws 7 12
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 0.88 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Super Lig
F. Karagumruk vs Alanyaspor
2:1
Jan 13, 2026 Turkish Cup
Alanyaspor vs F. Karagumruk
2:2
Dec 21, 2025 Super Lig
Alanyaspor vs F. Karagumruk
2:0
Feb 6, 2025 Turkish Cup
Alanyaspor vs F. Karagumruk
4:1
Feb 25, 2024 Super Lig
F. Karagumruk vs Alanyaspor
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

F. Karagumruk Compare

Top Goalscorer Larsson S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Alanyaspor Compare

Top Goalscorer Elia M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

F. Karagumruk 40 / 100
Alanyaspor 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
F. Karagumruk Alanyaspor

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick KAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Attacking prowess: F. Karagumruk scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Alanyaspor's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

Recent resilience: F. Karagumruk stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

F. Karagumruk VS Alanyaspor
0.88 Goals Scored 1.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

F. Karagumruk

(Home)
16 May
F. Karagumruk
2 : 1
Alanyaspor
09 May
Kocaelispor
0 : 1
F. Karagumruk
03 May
F. Karagumruk
1 : 0
Genclerbirligi
27 Apr
Besiktas
0 : 0
F. Karagumruk
18 Apr
F. Karagumruk
1 : 2
Eyupspor
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Alanyaspor

(Away)
16 Jul
Alanyaspor
2 : 2
Tikves
16 May
F. Karagumruk
2 : 1
Alanyaspor
09 May
Alanyaspor
3 : 1
Kayserispor
03 May
Antalyaspor
0 : 0
Alanyaspor
27 Apr
Alanyaspor
2 : 3
Samsunspor
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Galatasaray34245577:3077
2Fenerbahce342111277:3774
3Trabzonspor34209561:3969
4Besiktas34179859:4060
5Basaksehir34169958:3557
6Goztepe341413742:3255
7Samsunspor341312946:4551
8Rizespor3410111346:5241
9Konyaspor3410101443:5040
10Kocaelispor349101526:3837
11Alanyaspor347161141:4137
12Gaziantep349101543:5837
13Kasimpasa348111533:4935
14Genclerbirligi34971836:4734
15Eyupspor34891733:4833
16Antalyaspor34881833:5532
17Kayserispor346121627:6230
18F. Karagumruk34862031:5430
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - 1. Lig (Main)