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Fabril do Barreiro vs FC Barreirense

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Fabril do Barreiro play FC Barreirense in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Fabril do Barreiro averaged 0.87 goals scored and 1.23 conceded. FC Barreirense averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. In past meetings, Fabril do Barreiro won 1, FC Barreirense won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 9, 2025 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Fabril do Barreiro and 1.06 for FC Barreirense. This points to a Fabril do Barreiro double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Fabril do Barreiro
28%
Draws
31%
FC Barreirense
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Fabril do Barreiro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Fabril do Barreiro picked up more points recently compared to FC Barreirense.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 37%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Fabril do Barreiro Clean Sheet 22%
FC Barreirense Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fabril do Barreiro FC Barreirense
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 5
Draws 11 8
Losses 12 17
Goals Scored 0.87 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 9, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Fabril do Barreiro vs FC Barreirense
1:1
Nov 10, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
FC Barreirense vs Fabril do Barreiro
1:0
Feb 25, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Fabril do Barreiro vs FC Barreirense
0:1
Nov 19, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
FC Barreirense vs Fabril do Barreiro
1:0
Mar 24, 1974 Liga Portugal
Fabril do Barreiro vs FC Barreirense
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fabril do Barreiro Compare

Top Goalscorer Mendonca C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

FC Barreirense Compare

Top Goalscorer Meneses do Vale J. P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fabril do Barreiro 41 / 100
FC Barreirense 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fabril do Barreiro FC Barreirense

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Fabril do Barreiro or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +24.2%
3.03
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +19.5%
3.23
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Fabril do Barreiro attacking → ← attacking FC Barreirense

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fabril do Barreiro scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

FC Barreirense let in goals in 93% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Fabril do Barreiro went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

FC Barreirense lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

32 Points in last 5 23
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Lusitano GC26184457:1458
2Amora26176341:1957
3Sintrense26164639:2652
4Moncarapachense26156539:1951
5Louletano26155644:2050
6Serpa26136742:2745
7Estrela da Amadora B26791035:3130
8Lagoa26791026:3530
9Industria26851335:4229
10Fabril do Barreiro26691121:3227
11Moura AC26751427:5026
12Operario26651522:4323
13FC Barreirense26571431:4722
14Estrela Vendas Novas26122312:665