Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Fajr Sepasi vs Foolad

Iran Iran

Persian Gulf Pro League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

4'
Motlaghzadeh M.
46'
Sub
Mousavi M. In: Shahabbasi S.
Out: Mousavi M.
61'
Sub
Esmaeili F. In: Motahari A.
Out: Esmaeili F.

AI Match Summary

The Persian Gulf Pro League 2025/2026 game between Fajr Sepasi and Foolad finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Foolad.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Fajr Sepasi
35%
Draws
37%
Foolad
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Foolad

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Foolad come out ahead of Fajr Sepasi on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular Persian Gulf Pro League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 16%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Fajr Sepasi Clean Sheet 68%
Foolad Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fajr Sepasi Foolad
Matches Played 26 25
Wins 7 10
Draws 8 11
Losses 11 4
Goals Scored 0.92 1.16
Goals Conceded 1.12 0.64
Expected Goals (xG) 0.38 0.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 7, 2026 Persian Gulf Pro League
Foolad vs Fajr Sepasi
1:0
Dec 26, 2025 Persian Gulf Pro League
Fajr Sepasi vs Foolad
1:2
Mar 17, 2022 Persian Gulf Pro League
Foolad vs Fajr Sepasi
1:0
Dec 5, 2021 Persian Gulf Pro League
Fajr Sepasi vs Foolad
1:1
Sep 30, 2019 Hazfi Cup
Fajr Sepasi vs Foolad
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fajr Sepasi Compare

Avg xG / game 0.29
Avg xA / game 0.19

Foolad Compare

Top Goalscorer Mahrooghi E.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.4
Avg xA / game 0.24

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fajr Sepasi 42 / 100
Foolad 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fajr Sepasi Foolad

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Fajr Sepasi scored in 65% of their last 26 outings.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Fajr Sepasi has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Foolad has conceded goals in 52% of their last 25 outings.

Scoring Trends

Fajr Sepasi VS Foolad
0.38 Goals Scored 0.5
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.38
25% Over 1.5 38%
0% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Fajr Sepasi

(Home)
07 Sept
Foolad
1 : 0
Fajr Sepasi
03 Sept
Fajr Sepasi
1 : 1
Mes Shahr Babak
29 Aug
Fajr Sepasi
0 : 0
Zob Ahan
24 Aug
Malavan
0 : 1
Fajr Sepasi
19 Aug
Fajr Sepasi
0 : 0
Sanat Naft
Page 1 of 6

Foolad

(Away)
07 Sept
Foolad
1 : 0
Fajr Sepasi
02 Sept
Kheybar Khorramabad
2 : 0
Foolad
28 Aug
Foolad
0 : 0
Esteghlal TEH
24 Aug
Sanat Naft
0 : 3
Foolad
19 Aug
Foolad
1 : 1
Shams Azar Qazvin
Page 1 of 5

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Esteghlal TEH 22 11 8 3 29:16 41
2 Tractor 22 10 9 3 30:12 39
3 Sepahan 22 11 6 5 24:13 39
4 Gol Gohar 23 10 6 7 24:24 36
5 Chadormalu 22 9 8 5 27:19 35
6 Persepolis 22 9 7 6 23:19 34
7 Foolad 22 7 10 5 21:16 31
8 Fajr Sepasi 23 8 6 9 25:27 30
9 Kheybar Khorramabad 23 7 8 8 22:24 29
10 Malavan 22 7 8 7 13:21 29
11 Esteghlal Khuzestan 22 6 7 9 16:23 25
12 Paykan 23 5 9 9 15:21 24
13 Shams Azar Qazvin 23 3 13 7 15:19 22
14 Aluminium Arak 22 5 7 10 14:21 22
15 Zob Ahan 21 3 10 8 12:19 19
16 Mes Rafsanjan 22 3 6 13 13:29 15
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Qualification)
Relegation - Persian Gulf Pro League 2025/2026 (Relegation)