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Falcon vs America de Propria

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Renato
71'
Val Baiano
71'
Val Baiano

AI Match Summary

America de Propria in this Sergipano 2025 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored America de Propria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Falcon
15%
Draws
0%
America de Propria
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Falcon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Falcon lately — more wins on the board than America de Propria.
  • 85% — that's where the model lands on Falcon taking it.
  • Regular Sergipano 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Falcon Clean Sheet 68%
America de Propria Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Falcon America de Propria
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 14 10
Draws 3 12
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1.03 1.12
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.06
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 13, 2026 Copa Governo (Sergipe)
Falcon vs America de Propria
1:0
Feb 7, 2026 Sergipano
America de Propria vs Falcon
2:1
Feb 24, 2025 Sergipano
Falcon vs America de Propria
0:1
Feb 21, 2024 Sergipano
Falcon vs America de Propria
2:2
Feb 16, 2023 Sergipano
Falcon vs America de Propria
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Falcon Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

America de Propria Compare

Top Goalscorer Renato
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Falcon 95 / 100
America de Propria 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Falcon America de Propria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Falcon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

America de Propria lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Falcon found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: America de Propria conceded in 64% of 33 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Falcon VS America de Propria
1.5 Goals Scored 1
0.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Falcon

(Home)
30 Aug
Falcon
0 : 2
Desportiva Aracaju
23 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
0 : 0
Falcon
18 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
Atletico Gloriense
13 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
America de Propria
08 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 1
Falcon
Page 1 of 6

America de Propria

(Away)
13 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
America de Propria
08 Aug
America de Propria
2 : 3
Guarany SE
05 Aug
America de Propria
1 : 5
Atletico Gloriense
01 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
3 : 2
America de Propria
29 Jul
America de Propria
0 : 1
Lagarto
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Confianca 9 6 2 1 26:8 20
2 Itabaiana 9 5 4 0 18:7 19
3 Lagarto 9 5 2 2 20:8 17
4 America de Propria 9 4 3 2 10:6 15
5 Guarany SE 9 4 1 4 9:19 13
6 Falcon 9 4 0 5 11:15 12
7 Sergipe 9 3 2 4 10:11 11
8 Dorense 9 2 2 5 7:12 8
9 Barra SE 9 2 1 6 8:27 7
10 Carmopolis 9 0 3 6 10:16 3
Promotion - Sergipano 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano 2025 (Play Offs)