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Falcon vs Atletico Gloriense

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano Estadio Estadual Lourival Baptista (Batistao), Aracaju
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Beto
68' Event
Ueslei
(Penalty)
75' Event
Torelli Souza P.

AI Match Summary

The Sergipano game between Falcon and Atletico Gloriense finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Falcon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Falcon
30%
Draws
20%
Atletico Gloriense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Falcon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Falcon carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Falcon are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Regular Sergipano form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Falcon here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
Falcon Clean Sheet 68%
Atletico Gloriense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Falcon Atletico Gloriense
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 13 12
Draws 2 6
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.11 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.19 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 Copa Governo (Sergipe)
Atletico Gloriense vs Falcon
0:1
Feb 3, 2026 Sergipano
Falcon vs Atletico Gloriense
2:1
Feb 5, 2024 Sergipano
Falcon vs Atletico Gloriense
3:1
Feb 5, 2023 Sergipano
Atletico Gloriense vs Falcon
0:1
Mar 13, 2022 Sergipano
Falcon vs Atletico Gloriense
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Falcon Compare

Top Goalscorer Torelli Souza P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Atletico Gloriense Compare

Top Goalscorer Beto
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Falcon 77 / 100
Atletico Gloriense 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Falcon Atletico Gloriense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Falcon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Falcon went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Falcon scored in 63% of their last 27 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Atletico Gloriense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Falcon VS Atletico Gloriense
1.38 Goals Scored 2.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Falcon

(Home)
13 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
America de Propria
08 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 1
Falcon
05 Aug
Falcon
2 : 0
Desportiva Aracaju
01 Aug
Lagarto
1 : 2
Falcon
29 Jul
Falcon
3 : 0
Guarany SE
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Atletico Gloriense

(Away)
13 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 0
Lagarto
08 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 1
Falcon
05 Aug
America de Propria
1 : 5
Atletico Gloriense
01 Aug
Guarany SE
1 : 1
Atletico Gloriense
29 Jul
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 0
Desportiva Aracaju
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sergipe 9 6 2 1 13:6 20
2 Itabaiana 9 5 2 2 12:4 17
3 Lagarto 9 4 4 1 16:8 16
4 Confianca 9 4 3 2 10:6 15
5 Guarany SE 9 3 3 3 10:10 12
6 America de Propria 9 2 6 1 8:8 12
7 Falcon 9 3 2 4 8:10 11
8 Atletico Gloriense 9 3 1 5 14:13 10
9 Dorense 9 2 1 6 9:23 7
10 Desportiva Aracaju 9 0 2 7 5:17 2
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)