Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Falcon vs Confianca

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano 2025 Estadio Estadual Lourival Baptista (Batistao), Aracaju
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Andre Lima
(Penalty)
31'
Sub
Barbosa de Jesus R. In: Cotio L.
Out: Barbosa de Jesus R.
43' Event
Ueslei

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-2, with Confianca advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
Falcon
30%
Draws
9%
Confianca
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Falcon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Confianca carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 61% — that's where the model lands on Falcon taking it.
  • Confianca arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Confianca, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Confianca here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Falcon Clean Sheet 68%
Confianca Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Falcon Confianca
Matches Played 30 41
Wins 14 16
Draws 3 7
Losses 13 18
Goals Scored 1.1 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.02
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 21, 2026 Sergipano
Confianca vs Falcon
0:0
Mar 15, 2025 Sergipano
Confianca vs Falcon
3:0
Mar 8, 2025 Sergipano
Falcon vs Confianca
1:2
Jan 16, 2025 Sergipano
Falcon vs Confianca
1:3
Jan 30, 2024 Sergipano
Confianca vs Falcon
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Falcon Compare

Top Goalscorer Ueslei
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Confianca Compare

Top Goalscorer Ronald Camarao
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.35
Avg xA / game 0.21

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Falcon 95 / 100
Confianca 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Falcon Confianca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Falcon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Falcon stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Falcon scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Confianca's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 41 matches.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Falcon VS Confianca
1.25 Goals Scored 0.63
0.13 Goals Conceded 1
38% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Falcon

(Home)
23 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
0 : 0
Falcon
18 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
Atletico Gloriense
13 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
America de Propria
08 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 1
Falcon
05 Aug
Falcon
2 : 0
Desportiva Aracaju
Page 1 of 6

Confianca

(Away)
22 Aug
Confianca
0 : 1
Anapolis
16 Aug
Confianca
1 : 1
Maringa FC
10 Aug
Paysandu PA
2 : 1
Confianca
25 Jul
Confianca
1 : 1
Itabaiana
12 Jul
Botafogo PB
2 : 0
Confianca
Page 1 of 9

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Confianca -
TBD -
Lagarto 0
Falcon 1
Itabaiana 2
Sergipe 0
America de Propria 1
Guarany SE 0
Semi-finals
Confianca 5
Falcon 1
Itabaiana 2
America de Propria 1
Final
Confianca 3
Itabaiana 2