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Falcon vs Desportiva Aracaju

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano Estadio Estadual Lourival Baptista (Batistao), Aracaju
Our Tip

Match Events

8'
Presses M.
58' Event
Andre Castro
61' Event
Oliveira R.

AI Match Summary

The Sergipano game between Falcon and Desportiva Aracaju finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Falcon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Falcon
20%
Draws
45%
Desportiva Aracaju
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Desportiva Aracaju

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Desportiva Aracaju come out ahead of Falcon on wins alone.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 61.8%
Falcon Clean Sheet 20%
Desportiva Aracaju Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Falcon Desportiva Aracaju
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 17
Draws 3 5
Losses 13 8
Goals Scored 1.03 1.83
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Copa Governo (Sergipe)
Falcon vs Desportiva Aracaju
0:2
Aug 23, 2026 Copa Governo (Sergipe)
Desportiva Aracaju vs Falcon
0:0
Aug 5, 2026 Copa Governo (Sergipe)
Falcon vs Desportiva Aracaju
2:0
Feb 14, 2026 Sergipano
Falcon vs Desportiva Aracaju
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Falcon Compare

Top Goalscorer Andre Castro
1 Goals
Assists Leader Oliveira R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Desportiva Aracaju Compare

Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Falcon 32 / 100
Desportiva Aracaju 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Falcon Desportiva Aracaju

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Falcon found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (30 games).

Historical meetings average 1.50 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Falcon stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Desportiva Aracaju let in goals in 47% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Falcon VS Desportiva Aracaju
1.5 Goals Scored 0.88
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Falcon

(Home)
30 Aug
Falcon
0 : 2
Desportiva Aracaju
23 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
0 : 0
Falcon
18 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
Atletico Gloriense
13 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
America de Propria
08 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 1
Falcon
Page 1 of 6

Desportiva Aracaju

(Away)
30 Aug
Falcon
0 : 2
Desportiva Aracaju
23 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
0 : 0
Falcon
19 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0
Lagarto
13 Aug
Guarany SE
0 : 1
Desportiva Aracaju
10 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0
Lagarto
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sergipe 9 6 2 1 13:6 20
2 Itabaiana 9 5 2 2 12:4 17
3 Lagarto 9 4 4 1 16:8 16
4 Confianca 9 4 3 2 10:6 15
5 Guarany SE 9 3 3 3 10:10 12
6 America de Propria 9 2 6 1 8:8 12
7 Falcon 9 3 2 4 8:10 11
8 Atletico Gloriense 9 3 1 5 14:13 10
9 Dorense 9 2 1 6 9:23 7
10 Desportiva Aracaju 9 0 2 7 5:17 2
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)