Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Famalicao vs Alverca

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal 2025/2026 Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Vila Nova de Famalicao
Famalicao Logo

Famalicao

1 - 0
FT
Alverca Logo

Alverca

Our Tip

Match Events

20'
Touaizi N.
38'
Van de Looi T.
65'
Sub
Elisor S. In: Abubakar U.
Out: Elisor S.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga Portugal 2025/2026 game between Famalicao and Alverca finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Famalicao.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Famalicao
35%
Draws
41%
Alverca
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Alverca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Famalicao come out ahead of Alverca on wins alone.
  • Model gives Famalicao a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga Portugal 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Famalicao here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Famalicao Clean Sheet 20%
Alverca Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Famalicao Alverca
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 13 8
Draws 11 9
Losses 5 11
Goals Scored 1.24 1.11
Goals Conceded 0.69 1.46
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Liga Portugal
Famalicao vs Alverca
1:0
Jan 4, 2026 Liga Portugal
Alverca vs Famalicao
1:0
Nov 20, 2021 Taça de Portugal
Alverca vs Famalicao
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Famalicao Compare

Top Goalscorer Abubakar U.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Alverca Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Famalicao 36 / 100
Alverca 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Famalicao Alverca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alverca let in goals in 86% of their last 28 matches.

Famalicao scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Historical meetings average 1.67 goals per match.

Famalicao went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Famalicao VS Alverca
0.63 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
38% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Famalicao

(Home)
05 Sept
Estrela da Amadora
2 : 2
Famalicao
30 Aug
Famalicao
0 : 0
Gil Vicente
23 Aug
Santa Clara
1 : 0
Famalicao
16 Aug
Famalicao
1 : 2
Maritimo
07 Aug
Estoril
1 : 1
Famalicao
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Alverca

(Away)
12 Sept
Nacional
1 : 3
Alverca
05 Sept
Alverca
1 : 2
Braga
29 Aug
Alverca
1 : 1
Santa Clara
22 Aug
Sporting CP
3 : 1
Alverca
15 Aug
Alverca
2 : 2
Estrela da Amadora
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FC Porto 34 28 4 2 66:18 88
2 Sporting CP 34 25 7 2 89:24 82
3 Benfica 34 23 11 0 74:25 80
4 Braga 34 16 11 7 64:36 59
5 Famalicao 34 15 11 8 42:29 56
6 Gil Vicente 34 13 11 10 47:38 50
7 Moreirense 34 12 7 15 37:49 43
8 Arouca 34 12 6 16 47:64 42
9 Vitoria Guimaraes 34 12 6 16 39:51 42
10 Estoril 34 10 9 15 54:57 39
11 Alverca 34 10 9 15 35:52 39
12 Rio Ave 34 8 12 14 35:57 36
13 Santa Clara 34 9 9 16 32:41 36
14 Nacional 34 9 7 18 37:45 34
15 Estrela da Amadora 34 6 12 16 38:56 30
16 Casa Pia 34 6 12 16 31:57 30
17 Tondela 34 6 10 18 27:55 28
18 AFS 34 3 12 19 27:67 21
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)