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Fard vs Ario Eslamshahr - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iran Iran

Azadegan League 2025/2026
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Match Events

39' Event
Bagheri M.

AI Match Summary

The Azadegan League 2025/2026 game between Fard and Ario Eslamshahr finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Fard.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Fard
30%
Draws
42%
Ario Eslamshahr
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ario Eslamshahr

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ario Eslamshahr come out ahead of Fard on wins alone.
  • Model gives Fard a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 16%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 20%
Fard Clean Sheet 68%
Ario Eslamshahr Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fard Ario Eslamshahr
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 9
Draws 14 11
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 0.69 0.66
Goals Conceded 0.45 0.62
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2026 Azadegan League
Fard vs Ario Eslamshahr
1:0
Sep 23, 2025 Azadegan League
Ario Eslamshahr vs Fard
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fard Compare

Top Goalscorer Bagheri M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Ario Eslamshahr Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fard 51 / 100
Ario Eslamshahr 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fard Ario Eslamshahr

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Fard stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Fard scored in 41% of their last 29 outings.

Ario Eslamshahr let in goals in 55% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 0.50 goals.

Scoring Trends

Fard VS Ario Eslamshahr
1 Goals Scored 1.13
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Fard

(Home)
04 Oct
Naft Masjed-Soleyman
1 : 0
Fard
27 Sept
Fard
0 : 0
Shenavarsazi Qeshm
21 Sept
Niroye Zamini
0 : 1
Fard
15 Sept
Fard
1 : 1
Mes Kerman
16 Jul
Damash Gilan
0 : 0
Fard
Page 1 of 6

Ario Eslamshahr

(Away)
05 Oct
Mes Rafsanjan
1 : 0
Ario Eslamshahr
28 Sept
Ario Eslamshahr
2 : 0
Havadar SC
22 Sept
Naft Gachsaran
0 : 1
Ario Eslamshahr
16 Sept
Ario Eslamshahr
0 : 3
Naft Masjed-Soleyman
17 Jul
Mazandaran
1 : 2
Ario Eslamshahr
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mazandaran 34 20 9 5 48:17 69
2 Mes Shahr Babak 34 19 11 4 41:14 68
3 Sanat Naft 34 16 12 6 37:21 60
4 Pars Janoobi Jam 34 16 12 6 44:22 60
5 Saipa 34 16 11 7 30:18 59
6 Havadar SC 34 11 17 6 32:23 50
7 Naft Bandar Abbas 34 10 17 7 26:19 47
8 Fard 34 10 16 8 24:15 46
9 Mes Kerman 34 10 15 9 23:18 45
10 Ario Eslamshahr 34 9 16 9 19:18 43
11 Besat Kermanshah 34 9 11 14 25:32 38
12 Kara Gostar Shabestar 34 9 10 15 17:34 37
13 Niroye Zamini 34 8 12 14 28:31 36
14 Shenavarsazi Qeshm 34 8 11 15 23:36 35
15 Naft Gachsaran 34 7 14 13 25:41 35
16 Shahrdari Noshahr 34 5 15 14 18:29 30
17 Navad Urmia 34 4 12 18 16:48 24
18 Damash Gilan 34 2 13 19 16:56 19
Promotion - Persian Gulf Pro League (Main)
Promotion - Persian Gulf Pro League 2025/2026 (Relegation)