Sport Picks
Fasil Kenema vs Welwalo Adigrat - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Ethiopia
Premier League 2025/2026 
Match Events
40'
40'
Mulu J.
68'
68'
Hailemariam E.
90'
90'
Haflz K.
AI Match Summary
The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Fasil Kenema and Welwalo Adigrat finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Welwalo Adigrat.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
15%
45%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Welwalo Adigrat
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Welwalo Adigrat carry the better recent record into this one.
- Fasil Kenema are the model's pick here, at 36%.
- Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Fasil Kenema here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 38%
Over 2.5 Goals 18%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Fasil Kenema Clean Sheet 68%
Welwalo Adigrat Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Fasil Kenema | Welwalo Adigrat |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 10 | 12 |
| Draws | 8 | 10 |
| Losses | 11 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 0.69 | 1.14 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.86 | 0.79 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 27, 2026 Premier League
Fasil Kenema vs Welwalo Adigrat
1:2
Oct 23, 2025 Premier League
Welwalo Adigrat vs Fasil Kenema
0:2
Apr 3, 2025 Premier League
Welwalo Adigrat vs Fasil Kenema
1:2
Dec 5, 2024 Premier League
Fasil Kenema vs Welwalo Adigrat
1:0
Feb 3, 2020 Premier League
Fasil Kenema vs Welwalo Adigrat
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Fasil Kenema Compare
Top Goalscorer Mulu J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34
Welwalo Adigrat Compare
Top Goalscorer Hailemariam E.
1 Goals Assists Leader Haflz K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Fasil Kenema 46 / 100
Welwalo Adigrat 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Fasil Kenema Welwalo Adigrat
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.
Solid form: Fasil Kenema remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Fasil Kenema's goal record stands at 52% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Welwalo Adigrat let in goals in 57% of their last 28 matches.
Scoring Trends
Fasil Kenema VS Welwalo Adigrat
1 Goals Scored 0.75
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.38
38% Over 1.5 38%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Fasil Kenema
(Home) 01 Jul
Fasil Kenema
1 : 0 Ethiopian Insurance
26 Jun
St. Georges
1 : 0 Fasil Kenema
22 Jun
Fasil Kenema
2 : 0 Arba Menche
15 Jun
Hadiya Hossana
0 : 1 Fasil Kenema
29 May
Fasil Kenema
0 : 1 Sheger Ketema FC
Page 1 of 6
01 Jul
Fasil Kenema
1 : 0 Ethiopian Insurance
22 Jun
Fasil Kenema
2 : 0 Arba Menche
29 May
Fasil Kenema
0 : 1 Sheger Ketema FC
16 May
Fasil Kenema
3 : 1 Adama City
06 May
Fasil Kenema
0 : 2 Bahir Dar Kenema
Page 1 of 3
Welwalo Adigrat
(Away) 12 Sept
Welwalo Adigrat
3 : 1 Hilal Alsahil
04 Sept
Hilal Alsahil
2 : 1 Welwalo Adigrat
09 Jul
Sidama Bunna
0 : 2 Welwalo Adigrat
02 Jul
Welwalo Adigrat
1 : 1 St. Georges
26 Jun
Arba Menche
0 : 1 Welwalo Adigrat
Page 1 of 6
04 Sept
Hilal Alsahil
2 : 1 Welwalo Adigrat
09 Jul
Sidama Bunna
0 : 2 Welwalo Adigrat
26 Jun
Arba Menche
0 : 1 Welwalo Adigrat
16 Jun
Sheger Ketema FC
0 : 0 Welwalo Adigrat
21 May
Adama City
0 : 0 Welwalo Adigrat
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sidama Bunna | 38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 43:23 | 68 |
| 2 | Negele Arsi Ketema FC | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 37:30 | 60 |
| 3 | Mechal SC | 38 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 44:31 | 57 |
| 4 | Fasil Kenema | 38 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 28:28 | 55 |
| 5 | Ethio Electric S.C. | 38 | 13 | 15 | 10 | 32:26 | 54 |
| 6 | St. Georges | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 33:31 | 54 |
| 7 | Welayta Dicha | 38 | 11 | 18 | 9 | 37:31 | 51 |
| 8 | Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee) | 38 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 40:39 | 51 |
| 9 | Hawassa | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 37:32 | 50 |
| 10 | Sheger Ketema FC | 38 | 11 | 17 | 10 | 34:31 | 50 |
| 11 | Bahir Dar Kenema | 38 | 9 | 21 | 8 | 28:28 | 48 |
| 12 | Hadiya Hossana | 38 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 31:35 | 48 |
| 13 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 45:45 | 47 |
| 14 | Ethiopian Insurance | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 30:31 | 46 |
| 15 | Adama City | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 35:39 | 46 |
| 16 | Welwalo Adigrat | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 32:36 | 46 |
| 17 | Shire Endaselassie | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 24:32 | 42 |
| 18 | Dire Dawa | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 27:41 | 42 |
| 19 | Mekelle 70 Enderta FC | 38 | 8 | 16 | 14 | 26:38 | 40 |
| 20 | Arba Menche | 38 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 30:46 | 35 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
