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Fazendense vs Nogueirense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Peterson
25' Event
Lima Cruz R.
40' Event
Cardoso Costa Dias T. A.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C matchup, with the score ending 3-3.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Fazendense
30%
Draws
35%
Nogueirense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Nogueirense have won more games recently than Fazendense.
  • Win probability leans Fazendense's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Fazendense Clean Sheet 16%
Nogueirense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fazendense Nogueirense
Matches Played 13 29
Wins 3 8
Draws 1 9
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.23 1.14
Goals Conceded 2 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 23, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Fazendense vs Nogueirense
3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fazendense Compare

Top Goalscorer Fernandes R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Neves R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Nogueirense Compare

Top Goalscorer Peterson
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lima Cruz R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fazendense 41 / 100
Nogueirense 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fazendense Nogueirense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 6.00 goals as a typical output.

Fazendense found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (13 games).

Nogueirense has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Fazendense remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Fazendense VS Nogueirense
1.63 Goals Scored 1.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Fazendense

(Home)
27 Sept
Alverca B
5 : 0
Fazendense
20 Sept
Fazendense
6 : 1
Figueirense
13 Sept
Fazendense
1 : 2
O Elvas CAD
06 Sept
Mortagua FC
2 : 1
Fazendense
30 Aug
Fazendense
1 : 0
Mocarriense
Page 1 of 3

Nogueirense

(Away)
13 Sept
SB Castelo Branco
2 : 3
Nogueirense
06 Sept
Nogueirense
1 : 1
Uniao Da Serra
30 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 3
Naval 1893
23 Aug
Fazendense
3 : 3
Nogueirense
16 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 1
Sertanense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mortagua FC 4 3 1 0 9:4 10
2 O Elvas CAD 4 3 1 0 6:2 10
3 Oliveira Hospital 4 3 0 1 6:4 9
4 Os Marialvas 4 3 0 1 8:2 9
5 Uniao Da Serra 4 2 2 0 6:4 8
6 Naval 1893 4 2 0 2 6:4 6
7 Nogueirense 4 1 3 0 8:7 6
8 SB Castelo Branco 4 2 0 2 7:9 6
9 Fatima 4 1 1 2 6:5 4
10 Malveira 4 1 1 2 4:7 4
11 Alverca B 4 1 0 3 6:4 3
12 Sertanense 4 0 2 2 3:7 2
13 Fazendense 4 0 1 3 5:12 1
14 GD Os Nazarenos 4 0 0 4 1:10 0
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)