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Fazendense vs Os Marialvas - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Gomez T.
67' Event
Fernandes S.
(Penalty)
84' Event
Fernandes S.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C game between Fazendense and Os Marialvas finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Os Marialvas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Fazendense
15%
Draws
85%
Os Marialvas
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Os Marialvas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Os Marialvas come out ahead of Fazendense on wins alone.
  • 85% — that's where the model lands on Os Marialvas taking it.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Fazendense Clean Sheet 10%
Os Marialvas Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fazendense Os Marialvas
Matches Played 17 29
Wins 3 13
Draws 1 7
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 1.18 1.31
Goals Conceded 2.29 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 25, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Fazendense vs Os Marialvas
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fazendense Compare

Top Goalscorer Gomez T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Os Marialvas Compare

Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fazendense 14 / 100
Os Marialvas 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fazendense Os Marialvas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Os Marialvas Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fazendense's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 17 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: Os Marialvas conceded in 55% of 29 recent games.

Os Marialvas lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Fazendense VS Os Marialvas
1.75 Goals Scored 1.88
2.25 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Fazendense

(Home)
01 Nov
Fatima
6 : 1
Fazendense
25 Oct
Fazendense
1 : 2
Os Marialvas
17 Oct
Fazendense
1 : 2
Estrela da Amadora
11 Oct
Malveira
3 : 1
Fazendense
27 Sept
Alverca B
5 : 0
Fazendense
Page 1 of 4

Os Marialvas

(Away)
01 Nov
Os Marialvas
2 : 1
Uniao Da Serra
25 Oct
Fazendense
1 : 2
Os Marialvas
16 Oct
Chaves
2 : 1
Os Marialvas
11 Oct
Os Marialvas
0 : 0
Sertanense
20 Sept
UD Ovarense
0 : 1
Os Marialvas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Os Marialvas 7 5 1 1 12:4 16
2 O Elvas CAD 7 5 1 1 13:6 16
3 Mortagua FC 7 4 2 1 11:5 14
4 Oliveira Hospital 7 4 2 1 13:9 14
5 Uniao Da Serra 7 3 3 1 10:8 12
6 SB Castelo Branco 7 3 1 3 11:14 10
7 Malveira 7 2 3 2 10:11 9
8 Fatima 7 2 2 3 15:11 8
9 Nogueirense 7 1 5 1 11:13 8
10 Naval 1893 7 2 1 4 7:9 7
11 Alverca B 7 2 1 4 10:7 7
12 Sertanense 7 0 5 2 5:9 5
13 GD Os Nazarenos 7 1 2 4 5:12 5
14 Fazendense 7 0 1 6 8:23 1
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)