Sport Picks

Stadium Background

FBC Melgar vs Cajamarca

Peru Peru

Liga 1 Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustin (UNSA), Arequipa
Our Tip

Match Events

31'
Cantt J.
45'
Deneumostier A.
60'
Sub
Guzman L. In: Caceres J.
Out: Guzman L.

AI Match Summary

The Liga 1 game between FBC Melgar and Cajamarca finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward FBC Melgar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
FBC Melgar
20%
Draws
0%
Cajamarca
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: FBC Melgar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Cajamarca haven't matched FBC Melgar's recent run of results.
  • Model gives FBC Melgar a 80% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • FBC Melgar have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
FBC Melgar Clean Sheet 20%
Cajamarca Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FBC Melgar Cajamarca
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 11 5
Draws 10 10
Losses 9 16
Goals Scored 1.5 1.32
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.84
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Liga 1
FBC Melgar vs Cajamarca
2:0
Jul 19, 2025 Liga 1
Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar
1:2
Feb 8, 2025 Liga 1
FBC Melgar vs Cajamarca
3:0
Oct 22, 2024 Liga 1
FBC Melgar vs Cajamarca
1:0
May 12, 2024 Liga 1
Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar
2:6

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FBC Melgar Compare

Top Goalscorer Cuesta B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Quagliata N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Cajamarca Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FBC Melgar 85 / 100
Cajamarca 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FBC Melgar Cajamarca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FBC Melgar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FBC Melgar's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Cajamarca conceded in 90% of 31 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Cajamarca's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

FBC Melgar VS Cajamarca
1.5 Goals Scored 0.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 2.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

FBC Melgar

(Home)
20 Sept
FBC Melgar
1 : 1
Sport Boys
12 Sept
Cusco
0 : 1
FBC Melgar
06 Sept
FBC Melgar
3 : 0
AD Tarma
01 Sept
Atletico Grau
1 : 0
FBC Melgar
23 Aug
FBC Melgar
1 : 1
A. Lima
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Cajamarca

(Away)
20 Sept
Sport Huancayo
3 : 2
Cajamarca
11 Sept
Cajamarca
1 : 2
Juan Pablo II
04 Sept
Alianza Atl.
3 : 2
Cajamarca
29 Aug
Cajamarca
2 : 4
Universitario de Deportes
25 Aug
Alianza Atl.
2 : 1
Cajamarca
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A. Lima 17 12 4 1 30:8 40
2 Los Chankas 17 10 4 3 25:21 34
3 Cienciano 17 10 3 4 34:22 33
4 Universitario de Deportes 17 8 5 4 24:15 29
5 FBC Melgar 17 8 4 5 29:20 28
6 Cusco 17 8 3 6 21:24 27
7 Deportivo Garcilaso 17 7 5 5 21:18 26
8 Alianza Atl. 17 5 6 6 20:18 21
9 Comerciantes Unidos 17 5 6 6 18:20 21
10 AD Tarma 17 5 5 7 22:21 20
11 Sport Boys 17 5 5 7 15:19 20
12 Sporting Cristal 17 5 4 8 28:30 19
13 Cajamarca 17 4 6 7 21:26 18
14 Moquegua 17 5 3 9 17:24 18
15 FC Cajamarca 17 4 5 8 23:28 17
16 Atletico Grau 17 4 4 9 12:18 16
17 Sport Huancayo 17 4 4 9 21:31 16
18 Juan Pablo II 17 4 4 9 22:40 16
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)