Sport Picks
FBC Melgar vs Universitario de Deportes
Peru
Liga 1 Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustin (UNSA), Arequipa 
Match Events
1'
1'
Zegarra M.
Assist: Quagliata N.
5'
5'
Vidales J.
Assist: Zegarra M.
8'
8'
Concha J.
Assist: Carabali J.
AI Match Summary
The Liga 1 game between FBC Melgar and Universitario de Deportes finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward FBC Melgar.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
36%
30%
34%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: FBC Melgar
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
66%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Universitario de Deportes come out ahead of FBC Melgar on wins alone.
- FBC Melgar are the model's pick here, at 36%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
FBC Melgar Clean Sheet 20%
Universitario de Deportes Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | FBC Melgar | Universitario de Deportes |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 31 |
| Wins | 13 | 14 |
| Draws | 9 | 10 |
| Losses | 8 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 0.63 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 0.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 0.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 19, 2026 Liga 1
FBC Melgar vs Universitario de Deportes
2:1
Jan 20, 2026 Club Friendly
Universitario de Deportes vs FBC Melgar
3:2
Sep 14, 2025 Liga 1
FBC Melgar vs Universitario de Deportes
1:2
Apr 14, 2025 Liga 1
Universitario de Deportes vs FBC Melgar
4:1
Aug 1, 2024 Liga 1
FBC Melgar vs Universitario de Deportes
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
FBC Melgar Compare
Top Goalscorer Zegarra M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Vidales J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Universitario de Deportes Compare
Top Goalscorer Concha J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
FBC Melgar 36 / 100
Universitario de Deportes 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
FBC Melgar Universitario de Deportes
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
FBC Melgar scored in 83% of their last 30 games.
These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.
Solid form: FBC Melgar remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.
Universitario de Deportes let in goals in 61% of their last 31 matches.
Scoring Trends
FBC Melgar VS Universitario de Deportes
1.5 Goals Scored 0.63
1 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
FBC Melgar
(Home) 26 Jul
FBC Melgar
2 : 1 Sporting Cristal
18 Jul
Cienciano
1 : 3 FBC Melgar
29 Jun
FBC Melgar
0 : 0 Moquegua
18 Jun
LDU Quito
0 : 0 FBC Melgar
17 Jun
LDU Quito
1 : 1 FBC Melgar
Page 1 of 6
26 Jul
FBC Melgar
2 : 1 Sporting Cristal
29 Jun
FBC Melgar
0 : 0 Moquegua
31 May
FBC Melgar
3 : 1 Alianza Atl.
16 May
FBC Melgar
4 : 1 Sport Huancayo
03 May
FBC Melgar
2 : 0 Cajamarca
Page 1 of 3
Universitario de Deportes
(Away) 25 Jul
Universitario de Deportes
2 : 1 Cusco
18 Jul
AD Tarma
1 : 2 Universitario de Deportes
11 Jul
Universitario de Deportes
2 : 0 Millonarios
26 Jun
Universitario de Deportes
1 : 1 Atletico Grau
13 Jun
Pirata
2 : 0 Universitario de Deportes
Page 1 of 7
18 Jul
AD Tarma
1 : 2 Universitario de Deportes
13 Jun
Pirata
2 : 0 Universitario de Deportes
23 May
Moquegua
0 : 0 Universitario de Deportes
20 May
Club Nacional
0 : 0 Universitario de Deportes
12 May
Sport Boys
0 : 0 Universitario de Deportes
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A. Lima | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30:8 | 40 |
| 2 | Los Chankas | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 25:21 | 34 |
| 3 | Cienciano | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 34:22 | 33 |
| 4 | Universitario de Deportes | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24:15 | 29 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29:20 | 28 |
| 6 | Cusco | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 21:24 | 27 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21:18 | 26 |
| 8 | Alianza Atl. | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20:18 | 21 |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18:20 | 21 |
| 10 | AD Tarma | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 22:21 | 20 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 15:19 | 20 |
| 12 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 28:30 | 19 |
| 13 | Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 21:26 | 18 |
| 14 | Moquegua | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 17:24 | 18 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 23:28 | 17 |
| 16 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12:18 | 16 |
| 17 | Sport Huancayo | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 21:31 | 16 |
| 18 | Juan Pablo II | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 22:40 | 16 |
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)
