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FC 08 Homburg vs Freiberg

Germany Germany

Regionalliga Sudwest 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

73' Event
El Helwe H.
76' Event
Polauke P.
88' Event
Inanoglu K.

AI Match Summary

The Regionalliga Sudwest 2025/2026 game between FC 08 Homburg and Freiberg finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward FC 08 Homburg.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
FC 08 Homburg
15%
Draws
45%
Freiberg
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Freiberg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • FC 08 Homburg carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Freiberg's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Regionalliga Sudwest 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
FC 08 Homburg Clean Sheet 10%
Freiberg Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC 08 Homburg Freiberg
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 17 14
Draws 3 7
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 2.07 2.14
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 Regionalliga Sudwest
Freiberg vs FC 08 Homburg
3:0
Apr 11, 2026 Regionalliga Sudwest
FC 08 Homburg vs Freiberg
2:1
Oct 4, 2025 Regionalliga Sudwest
Freiberg vs FC 08 Homburg
1:2
Apr 25, 2025 Regionalliga Sudwest
FC 08 Homburg vs Freiberg
1:2
Oct 26, 2024 Regionalliga Sudwest
Freiberg vs FC 08 Homburg
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC 08 Homburg Compare

Top Goalscorer El Helwe H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Inanoglu K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Freiberg Compare

Top Goalscorer Polauke P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC 08 Homburg 22 / 100
Freiberg 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC 08 Homburg Freiberg

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Freiberg Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC 08 Homburg scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Freiberg's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

FC 08 Homburg went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FC 08 Homburg VS Freiberg
1.75 Goals Scored 2.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

FC 08 Homburg

(Home)
29 Aug
FC 08 Homburg
0 : 1
Stutt. Kickers
22 Aug
Sandhausen
1 : 3
FC 08 Homburg
15 Aug
Freiberg
3 : 0
FC 08 Homburg
08 Aug
FC 08 Homburg
2 : 1
Mainz II
01 Aug
FC 08 Homburg
2 : 1
Hoffenheim II
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Freiberg

(Away)
29 Aug
Freiberg
2 : 1
Eintracht Frankfurt II
22 Aug
VfR Mannheim
0 : 0
Freiberg
15 Aug
Freiberg
3 : 0
FC 08 Homburg
08 Aug
Kaiserslautern II
0 : 5
Freiberg
18 Jul
Freiberg
0 : 3
Hoffenheim
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sonnenhof Grossaspach 34 20 8 6 86:43 68
2 Freiberg 34 18 8 8 68:38 62
3 FSV Frankfurt 34 16 9 9 64:48 57
4 FC 08 Homburg 34 15 11 8 71:42 56
5 TSV Steinbach Haiger 34 16 8 10 78:58 56
6 Kassel 34 15 9 10 62:51 54
7 Stutt. Kickers 34 17 3 14 51:44 54
8 Sandhausen 34 16 6 12 53:56 54
9 Mainz II 34 14 11 9 52:45 53
10 Fulda-Lehnerz 34 13 10 11 51:44 49
11 Freiburg II 34 14 6 14 74:73 48
12 Astoria Walldorf 34 13 8 13 64:65 47
13 Eintracht Trier 34 13 8 13 48:52 47
14 Kickers Offenbach 34 11 10 13 57:58 43
15 Alzenau 34 7 6 21 45:74 27
16 Schott Mainz 34 7 4 23 40:83 25
17 Balingen 34 6 7 21 38:87 25
18 Bahlinger 34 4 10 20 34:75 22
Promotion - 3. Liga (Main)