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FC Alpendorada vs CD Gouveia

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

84' Event
Carvalho P.

AI Match Summary

FC Alpendorada in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored FC Alpendorada.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
FC Alpendorada
15%
Draws
28%
CD Gouveia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FC Alpendorada

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • FC Alpendorada have won more games recently than CD Gouveia.
  • Win probability leans FC Alpendorada's way, sitting at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
FC Alpendorada Clean Sheet 68%
CD Gouveia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Alpendorada CD Gouveia
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 2
Draws 9 4
Losses 9 24
Goals Scored 1.34 0.8
Goals Conceded 1.1 2.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.85
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
FC Alpendorada vs CD Gouveia
1:0
Nov 9, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
CD Gouveia vs FC Alpendorada
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Alpendorada Compare

Top Goalscorer Carvalho P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

CD Gouveia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.47

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Alpendorada 86 / 100
CD Gouveia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Alpendorada CD Gouveia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FC Alpendorada Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CD Gouveia has conceded goals in 97% of their last 30 outings.

Attacking prowess: FC Alpendorada scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: CD Gouveia has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

FC Alpendorada VS CD Gouveia
1.63 Goals Scored 0.71
1 Goals Conceded 1.86
50% Over 1.5 86%
38% Over 2.5 43%
25% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Alpendorada

(Home)
20 Sept
FC Alpendorada
3 : 0
Macao
13 Sept
FC Alpendorada
1 : 2
Machico
06 Sept
Sanjoanense
3 : 1
FC Alpendorada
30 Aug
Rebordosa
2 : 3
FC Alpendorada
23 Aug
FC Alpendorada
1 : 2
Camacha
Page 1 of 6

CD Gouveia

(Away)
18 Apr
CD Gouveia
1 : 2
Beira Mar
12 Apr
Anadia
2 : 1
CD Gouveia
04 Apr
CD Gouveia
3 : 2
Vila Mea
22 Mar
CD Gouveia
0 : 2
Uniao Lamas
15 Mar
FC Alpendorada
1 : 0
CD Gouveia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rebordosa 26 17 7 2 41:17 58
2 Leca 26 14 9 3 50:23 51
3 Cinfaes 26 10 10 6 33:21 40
4 Beira Mar 26 10 8 8 30:22 38
5 FC Alpendorada 26 9 11 6 30:22 38
6 Florgrade 26 9 10 7 28:28 37
7 Vila Mea 26 7 13 6 29:28 34
8 Uniao Lamas 26 9 6 11 27:33 33
9 SC Salgueiros 26 7 11 8 20:19 32
10 Anadia 26 7 9 10 27:33 30
11 Aparecida 26 9 4 13 36:51 28
12 GD Resende 26 6 10 10 27:31 28
13 SC Vila Real 26 5 12 9 23:30 27
14 CD Gouveia 26 1 4 21 14:57 7
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)