Sport Picks

Portugal

Taça de Portugal 2025/2026 Municipal Stadium Alpendorada, Alpendorada

FC Alpendorada

3 - 1

Estrela da Amadora

Our Tip

Match Events

Rodrigo Pinho

(Penalty)

15'

Meireles H.

25'

Tunguliiadi G.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-1, with FC Alpendorada advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%

FC Alpendorada

20%

Draws

46%

Estrela da Amadora

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Estrela da Amadora

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence

Look at the last few games and FC Alpendorada come out ahead of Estrela da Amadora on wins alone.
Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
FC Alpendorada have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor FC Alpendorada, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 88%

Over 1.5 Goals 79%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%

FC Alpendorada Clean Sheet 68%

Estrela da Amadora Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	FC Alpendorada	Estrela da Amadora
Matches Played	30	29
Wins	12	8
Draws	9	10
Losses	9	11
Goals Scored	1.4	1.41
Goals Conceded	1.1	1.45
Expected Goals (xG)	1.27	1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 18, 2025 Taça de Portugal

FC Alpendorada vs Estrela da Amadora

3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Alpendorada Compare

Top Goalscorer Carvalho P.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Borges M.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.98

Avg xA / game 0.64

Estrela da Amadora Compare

Avg xG / game 1.42

Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Alpendorada 41 / 100

Estrela da Amadora 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

FC Alpendorada Estrela da Amadora

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FC Alpendorada Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

FC Alpendorada found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Estrela da Amadora conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

FC Alpendorada went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FC Alpendorada VS Estrela da Amadora

1.67 Goals Scored 1.63

1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88

83% Over 1.5 75%

83% Over 2.5 38%

33% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Alpendorada

(Home)

20 Sept

FC Alpendorada

3 : 0

Macao

13 Sept

FC Alpendorada

1 : 2

Machico

06 Sept

Sanjoanense

3 : 1

FC Alpendorada

30 Aug

Rebordosa

2 : 3

FC Alpendorada

23 Aug

FC Alpendorada

1 : 2

Camacha

Page 1 of 6

Estrela da Amadora

(Away)

20 Sept

Estrela da Amadora

0 : 2

Academico Viseu

14 Sept

Rio Ave

3 : 3

Estrela da Amadora

10 Sept

Estrela da Amadora

2 : 1

Braga

05 Sept

Estrela da Amadora

2 : 2

Famalicao

30 Aug

Nacional

2 : 3

Estrela da Amadora

Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Scroll horizontally to view stages →

1/128-finals

Florgrade 0

SC Espinho 1

TBD -

Almodovar -

TBD -

Santa Clara -

Industria 1

Juv. Evora 0

SC Salgueiros 4

AD Pontassolense 2

Trofense 5

Varzim 1

Valenciano 1

SC Vianense 4

GD Os Nazarenos 1

GD Sourense 0

TBD -

Pacos Ferreira -

TBD -

Sporting CP -

Moncarapachense 3

Viana Alentejo 0

Castro Daire 1

Anadia 2

Marinhense 2

Samora Correia 1

TBD -

Mosteirense -

Uniao Lamas -

TBD -

Urzelinense 0

Malveira 6

TBD -

Vitoria Guimaraes -

Carregal do Sal 1

Mortagua FC 2

Academica 0

Os Marialvas 1

Portimonense B -

TBD -

Penafiel -

Fornos de Algodres -

TBD -

Charneca Caparica 1

Montijo 0

TBD -

AFS -

Portalegrense -

TBD -

Academico Viseu -

TBD -

Gil Vicente -

Celoricense 1

CD Celeiros 0

TBD -

Mafra -

TBD -

FC Porto -

Sintrense -

TBD -

Vizela -

TBD -

Rio Ave -

CF Os Belenenses 1

Amora 0

TBD -

Maritimo -

TBD -

Estoril -

Sao Joao de Ver -

TBD -

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 2

Lagoa 1

TBD -

Famalicao -

Cinfaes 0

AD Marco 09 1

SC Lusitania 0

O Elvas CAD 3

Vidago -

TBD -

SC Farense -

Silves FC -

TBD -

Oliveira Hospital -

Louletano -

TBD -

Operario -

Atletico CP -

TBD -

Rebordosa 2

Leca 0

Sanjoanense -

TBD -

FC Felgueiras -

Paredes -

TBD -

Chaves -

TBD -

Benfica -

UD Ovarense 7

SC Celoricense 1

TBD -

Covilha -

Uniao Nogueirense -

TBD -

Aguias do Moradal -

CD Lajense 1

Lusitano GC 7

Serpa 3

Portel 0

Fayal 0

Olivais e Moscavide 5

TBD -

Uniao Da Serra -

Oriental 2

GD Alcochetense 1

TBD -

AD Fafe -

TBD -

Moreirense -

Vitoria Sernache -

TBD -

Portimonense -

TBD -

Arouca -

Sao Martinho 1

Machico 2

SC Vila Real 3

Camacha 2

TBD -

Tondela -

Caldas SC 4

AD Portomosense 0

TBD -

Fatima -

Fazendense -

TBD -

SC Mirandela -

GD Braganca -

TBD -

Maria de Fonte 1

Brito 2

TBD -

Braga -

Rebordelo -

TBD -

CD Gouveia 4

Beira Mar 2

TBD -

Nacional -

FC Alpendorada -

TBD -

Estrela Calheta -

TBD -

Estrela da Amadora -

Anca -

TBD -

Vinhais -

TBD -

Casa Pia -

Castrense 1

CDR Quarteirense 0

TBD -

Lusitania FC -

GD Resende -

TBD -

Feirense -

Correlha 2

Valpacos 0

TBD -

Torreense -

Vilaverdense FC 0

Desportivo Moncao 1

TBD -

Oliveirense -

AD Limianos -

TBD -

Aparecida 1

Vila Mea 3

Vila Caiz 1

CD Ribeira Brava 0

TBD -

Electrico FC -

Tirsense 1

Amarante FC 2

TBD -

Santarem -

Naval 1893 3

Ac. Fundao 0

TBD -

Leixoes -

GD Peniche 8

Ferreira do Zezere 0

Lajense 0

1º Dezembro 1

SB Castelo Branco -

TBD -

SC Angrense -

Sacavenense 7

CD Rabo Peixe 0

TBD -

Leiria -

TBD -

Alverca -

1/64-finals

SC Espinho 5

Almodovar 1

TBD -

Santa Clara -

Industria 4

SC Salgueiros 2

Trofense 2

SC Vianense 3

GD Os Nazarenos 0

Pacos Ferreira 1

TBD -

Sporting CP -

Moncarapachense 1

Anadia 2

Marinhense 6

Mosteirense 0

Uniao Lamas 2

Malveira 1

TBD -

Vitoria Guimaraes -

Mortagua FC 1

Os Marialvas 0

Portimonense B 2

Penafiel 1

Fornos de Algodres 3

Charneca Caparica 1

TBD -

AFS -

Portalegrense 0

Academico Viseu 3

TBD -

Gil Vicente -

Celoricense 1

Mafra 0

TBD -

FC Porto -

Sintrense 2

Vizela 1

TBD -

Rio Ave -

CF Os Belenenses 2

Maritimo 0

TBD -

Estoril -

Sao Joao de Ver 6

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 2

TBD -

Famalicao -

AD Marco 09 1

O Elvas CAD 0

Vidago 0

SC Farense 2

Silves FC 3

Oliveira Hospital 2

Louletano 5

Operario 0

Atletico CP 1

Rebordosa 0

Sanjoanense 0

FC Felgueiras 4

Paredes 0

Chaves 2

TBD -

Benfica -

UD Ovarense 2

Covilha 3

Uniao Nogueirense 1

Aguias do Moradal 0

Lusitano GC 1

Serpa 0

Olivais e Moscavide 2

Uniao Da Serra 0

Oriental 0

AD Fafe 1

TBD -

Moreirense -

Vitoria Sernache 1

Portimonense 2

TBD -

Arouca -

Machico 0

SC Vila Real 2

TBD -

Tondela -

Caldas SC 3

Fatima 0

Fazendense 1

SC Mirandela 2

GD Braganca 5

Brito 0

TBD -

Braga -

Rebordelo 3

CD Gouveia 2

TBD -

Nacional -

FC Alpendorada 7

Estrela Calheta 1

TBD -

Estrela da Amadora -

Anca 3

Vinhais 1

TBD -

Casa Pia -

Castrense 0

Lusitania FC 5

GD Resende 1

Feirense 0

Correlha 1

Torreense 3

Desportivo Moncao 1

Oliveirense 3

AD Limianos 0

Vila Mea 4

Vila Caiz 3

Electrico FC 2

Amarante FC 2

Santarem 0

Naval 1893 0

Leixoes 1

GD Peniche 4

1º Dezembro 5

SB Castelo Branco 7

SC Angrense 1

Sacavenense 2

Leiria 4

TBD -

Alverca -

1/32-finals

SC Espinho 0

Santa Clara 1

Industria 3

SC Vianense 0

Pacos Ferreira 2

Sporting CP 3

Anadia 0

Marinhense 1

Uniao Lamas 0

Vitoria Guimaraes 1

Mortagua FC 2

Portimonense B 0

Fornos de Algodres 0

AFS 7

Academico Viseu 2

Gil Vicente 1

Celoricense 0

FC Porto 4

Sintrense 3

Rio Ave 2

CF Os Belenenses 1

Estoril 2

Sao Joao de Ver 0

Famalicao 3

AD Marco 09 0

SC Farense 3

Silves FC 2

Louletano 1

Atletico CP 2

FC Felgueiras 0

Chaves 0

Benfica 2

Covilha 1

Uniao Nogueirense 0

Lusitano GC 4

Olivais e Moscavide 1

AD Fafe 1

Moreirense 0

Portimonense 1

Arouca 2

SC Vila Real 1

Tondela 5

Caldas SC 1

SC Mirandela 0

GD Braganca 0

Braga 1

Rebordelo 1

Nacional 3

FC Alpendorada 3

Estrela da Amadora 1

Anca 0

Casa Pia 3

Lusitania FC 2

GD Resende 0

Torreense 2

Oliveirense 1

Vila Mea 1

Vila Caiz 0

Amarante FC 1

Leixoes 2

1º Dezembro 2

SB Castelo Branco 1

Leiria 3

Alverca 2

1/16-finals

Santa Clara 3

Industria 0

Sporting CP 3

Marinhense 0

Vitoria Guimaraes 4

Mortagua FC 0

AFS 1

Academico Viseu 0

FC Porto 3

Sintrense 0

Estoril 1

Famalicao 2

SC Farense 5

Silves FC 1

Atletico CP 0

Benfica 2

Covilha 0

Lusitano GC 2

AD Fafe 2

Arouca 1

Tondela 0

Caldas SC 1

Braga 4

Nacional 2

FC Alpendorada 0

Casa Pia 3

Lusitania FC 0

Torreense 1

Vila Mea 2

Leixoes 1

1º Dezembro 1

Leiria 3

1/8-finals

Santa Clara 2

Sporting CP 3

Vitoria Guimaraes 0

AFS 1

FC Porto 4

Famalicao 1

SC Farense 0

Benfica 2

Lusitano GC 0

AD Fafe 1

Caldas SC 0

Braga 3

Casa Pia 1

Torreense 2

Vila Mea 0

Leiria 1

Quarter-finals

Sporting CP 3

AFS 2

FC Porto 1

Benfica 0

AD Fafe 2

Braga 1

Torreense 3

Leiria 1

Semi-finals

Sporting CP 1

FC Porto 0

AD Fafe 1

Torreense 3

Final

Sporting CP 1

Torreense 2

FC Alpendorada vs Estrela da Amadora

Portugal

FC Alpendorada

Estrela da Amadora

Match Events

AI Match Summary

Win Probability Meter

Model Confidence

Goal Probability Engine

Recent Team Form Analysis

H2H

Key Player Impact Analysis

FC Alpendorada Compare

Estrela da Amadora Compare

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Attack & Defence Capability Index

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Scoring Trends

Recent Form & Match History

FC Alpendorada

Estrela da Amadora

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Install Sokapicks PWA