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FC Alpendorada vs Vila Mea - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Fabio Rodrigo
45' Event
Djousse D.
49' Event
Djousse D.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2025/2026 game between FC Alpendorada and Vila Mea finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward FC Alpendorada.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
FC Alpendorada
15%
Draws
46%
Vila Mea
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Vila Mea

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and FC Alpendorada come out ahead of Vila Mea on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
FC Alpendorada Clean Sheet 19%
Vila Mea Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Alpendorada Vila Mea
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 12 8
Draws 9 12
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.4 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
FC Alpendorada vs Vila Mea
3:2
Oct 26, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Vila Mea vs FC Alpendorada
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Alpendorada Compare

Top Goalscorer Fabio Rodrigo
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pepe
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Vila Mea Compare

Top Goalscorer Djousse D.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Alpendorada 36 / 100
Vila Mea 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Alpendorada Vila Mea

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vila Mea Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC Alpendorada found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Vila Mea's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

Recent resilience: FC Alpendorada stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FC Alpendorada VS Vila Mea
1.5 Goals Scored 0.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Alpendorada

(Home)
20 Sept
FC Alpendorada
3 : 0
Macao
13 Sept
FC Alpendorada
1 : 2
Machico
06 Sept
Sanjoanense
3 : 1
FC Alpendorada
30 Aug
Rebordosa
2 : 3
FC Alpendorada
23 Aug
FC Alpendorada
1 : 2
Camacha
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Vila Mea

(Away)
13 Sept
Vila Mea
4 : 0
Vinhais
06 Sept
Rebordosa
1 : 0
Vila Mea
30 Aug
Maia Lidador
1 : 0
Vila Mea
23 Aug
Vila Mea
1 : 1
AD Limianos
16 Aug
Ponte da Barca
1 : 2
Vila Mea
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rebordosa 26 17 7 2 41:17 58
2 Leca 26 14 9 3 50:23 51
3 Cinfaes 26 10 10 6 33:21 40
4 Beira Mar 26 10 8 8 30:22 38
5 FC Alpendorada 26 9 11 6 30:22 38
6 Florgrade 26 9 10 7 28:28 37
7 Vila Mea 26 7 13 6 29:28 34
8 Uniao Lamas 26 9 6 11 27:33 33
9 SC Salgueiros 26 7 11 8 20:19 32
10 Anadia 26 7 9 10 27:33 30
11 Aparecida 26 9 4 13 36:51 28
12 GD Resende 26 6 10 10 27:31 28
13 SC Vila Real 26 5 12 9 23:30 27
14 CD Gouveia 26 1 4 21 14:57 7
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)