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FC Asgabat vs Ahal - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Turkmenistan Turkmenistan

Yokary Liga
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ahal in this Yokary Liga matchup, with the score ending 2-5 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ahal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
FC Asgabat
20%
Draws
60%
Ahal
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ahal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Ahal have won more games recently than FC Asgabat.
  • Win probability leans Ahal's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
FC Asgabat Clean Sheet 10%
Ahal Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Asgabat Ahal
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 6 20
Draws 4 5
Losses 19 8
Goals Scored 1.1 2.21
Goals Conceded 2.14 1.15
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 2.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Yokary Liga
FC Asgabat vs Ahal
2:5
Jun 20, 2026 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs FC Asgabat
4:3
May 10, 2026 Yokary Liga
FC Asgabat vs Ahal
0:3
Dec 15, 2025 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs FC Asgabat
1:2
Oct 4, 2025 Yokary Liga
FC Asgabat vs Ahal
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Asgabat 10 / 100
Ahal 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Asgabat Ahal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ahal Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.40 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: FC Asgabat scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Ahal's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Defensive concern: Ahal conceded in 55% of 33 recent games.

Scoring Trends

FC Asgabat VS Ahal
1.25 Goals Scored 2.63
2.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Asgabat

(Home)
19 Sept
FC Asgabat
2 : 5
Ahal
05 Sept
FC Asgabat
1 : 1
Kopetdag Asgabat
30 Aug
Merw
3 : 2
FC Asgabat
26 Aug
Arkadag
3 : 0
FC Asgabat
22 Aug
Nebitci
1 : 1
FC Asgabat
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Ahal

(Away)
07 Oct
Ahal
0 : 2
Altyn Asyr
28 Sept
Ahal
0 : 4
Arkadag
19 Sept
FC Asgabat
2 : 5
Ahal
12 Sept
Ahal
3 : 0
Nebitci
05 Sept
Sagadam
2 : 1
Ahal
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