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FC Asgabat vs Ahal

Turkmenistan Turkmenistan

Yokary Liga
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AI Match Summary

The Yokary Liga game between FC Asgabat and Ahal finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ahal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
FC Asgabat
20%
Draws
51%
Ahal
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ahal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Ahal carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Ahal's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
FC Asgabat Clean Sheet 10%
Ahal Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Asgabat Ahal
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 6 19
Draws 4 6
Losses 19 6
Goals Scored 1.03 2.26
Goals Conceded 2 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 2.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 20, 2026 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs FC Asgabat
4:3
May 10, 2026 Yokary Liga
FC Asgabat vs Ahal
0:3
Dec 15, 2025 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs FC Asgabat
1:2
Oct 4, 2025 Yokary Liga
FC Asgabat vs Ahal
1:1
May 13, 2025 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs FC Asgabat
4:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Asgabat 14 / 100
Ahal 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Asgabat Ahal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ahal Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

FC Asgabat found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

FC Asgabat went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Ahal conceded in 52% of 31 recent games.

Scoring Trends

FC Asgabat VS Ahal
1.63 Goals Scored 2.5
2.63 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Asgabat

(Home)
05 Sept
FC Asgabat
1 : 1
Kopetdag Asgabat
30 Aug
Merw
3 : 2
FC Asgabat
26 Aug
Arkadag
3 : 0
FC Asgabat
22 Aug
Nebitci
1 : 1
FC Asgabat
15 Aug
FC Asgabat
1 : 0
Sagadam
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Ahal

(Away)
12 Sept
Ahal
3 : 0
Nebitci
05 Sept
Sagadam
2 : 1
Ahal
22 Aug
Ahal
4 : 0
Merw
16 Aug
Arkadag
2 : 1
Ahal
07 Aug
Ahal
3 : 0
Kopetdag Asgabat
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