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FC Barreirense vs Real SC

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2023/2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

FC Barreirense play Real SC in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2023/2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, FC Barreirense averaged 1.28 goals scored and 1.78 conceded. Real SC averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.77 conceded. In past meetings, FC Barreirense won 3, Real SC won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 17, 2024 ended 4:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.10 for FC Barreirense and 1.50 for Real SC. This points to a FC Barreirense double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

55%
FC Barreirense
15%
Draws
30%
Real SC
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FC Barreirense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

81% / High Confidence
  • FC Barreirense picked up more points recently compared to Real SC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.10 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81%
Over 2.5 Goals 51%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 60%
FC Barreirense Clean Sheet 16%
Real SC Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 73%
Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Barreirense Real SC
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 7 4
Draws 8 5
Losses 17 21
Goals Scored 1.28 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.78 1.77

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 17, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
FC Barreirense vs Real SC
4:1
Dec 3, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Real SC vs FC Barreirense
1:2
Sep 10, 2021 Taça de Portugal
Real SC vs FC Barreirense
1:0
Jan 22, 2017 Campeonato de Portugal - Group G
Real SC vs FC Barreirense
0:2
Oct 30, 2016 Campeonato de Portugal - Group G
FC Barreirense vs Real SC
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Barreirense Compare

Top Goalscorer Bandeira J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Chao L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Real SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Manga M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Barreirense 53 / 100
Real SC 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Barreirense Real SC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FC Barreirense Win (1)
Secondary Pick FC Barreirense & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +17.1%
2.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +13.2%
2.22
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

FC Barreirense attacking → ← attacking Real SC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC Barreirense scored in 75% of their last 32 games.

Real SC let in goals in 97% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

FC Barreirense went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Real SC lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

29 Points in last 5 17
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Vitoria Setubal26165545:2153
2Moncarapachense26147529:1749
3Lusitano GC261113228:946
4Louletano26118737:2641
5Sintrense261010629:2640
6O Elvas CAD26109734:2739
7FC Barreirense26116931:2539
8Fabril do Barreiro26810829:2434
9Serpa261041227:3034
10Juv. Evora26881026:2532
11Vasco da Gama Vidigueira26861226:4530
12Oriental26781131:4829
13Real SC26351824:4614
14Imortal26271719:4613