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FC Gareji Sagarejo vs Gagra - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Georgia Georgia

Georgian Cup
FC Gareji Sagarejo Logo

FC Gareji Sagarejo

1 - 4
FT
Gagra Logo

Gagra

Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Kalandadze L.
24' Event
Peikrishvili A.
32' Event
Bliznichenko V.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-4. The second leg ended 1-4.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
FC Gareji Sagarejo
30%
Draws
29%
Gagra
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: FC Gareji Sagarejo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • FC Gareji Sagarejo carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives FC Gareji Sagarejo a 36% chance of winning this.
  • FC Gareji Sagarejo have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Gagra, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
FC Gareji Sagarejo Clean Sheet 10%
Gagra Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Gareji Sagarejo Gagra
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 10
Draws 8 11
Losses 6 8
Goals Scored 1.31 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 2, 2026 Georgian Cup
FC Gareji Sagarejo vs Gagra
1:4
Jan 24, 2026 Club Friendly
Gagra vs FC Gareji Sagarejo
1:0
Nov 25, 2025 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Gagra vs FC Gareji Sagarejo
4:1
Sep 20, 2025 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
FC Gareji Sagarejo vs Gagra
2:2
May 21, 2025 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Gagra vs FC Gareji Sagarejo
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Gareji Sagarejo Compare

Top Goalscorer Kalandadze L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Gagra Compare

Top Goalscorer Peikrishvili A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Bliznichenko V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Gareji Sagarejo 34 / 100
Gagra 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Gareji Sagarejo Gagra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gagra's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: FC Gareji Sagarejo scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.

FC Gareji Sagarejo has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

FC Gareji Sagarejo VS Gagra
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Gareji Sagarejo

(Home)
20 Sept
Shturmi
1 : 0
FC Gareji Sagarejo
16 Sept
FC Gareji Sagarejo
2 : 1
Gori
12 Sept
Samtredia
6 : 1
FC Gareji Sagarejo
06 Sept
FC Gareji Sagarejo
3 : 3
Bolnisi
29 Aug
Merani Martvili
1 : 2
FC Gareji Sagarejo
Page 1 of 6

Gagra

(Away)
19 Sept
Gagra
1 : 1
Meshakhte Tkibuli
14 Sept
Dinamo Tbilisi
4 : 0
Gagra
10 Sept
Gagra
1 : 1
Torpedo Kutaisi
05 Sept
Dila Gori
1 : 0
Gagra
31 Aug
Gagra
2 : 0
Iberia 1999
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Basa 2
Locomotive Tbilisi 1
TBD -
FC Gareji Sagarejo -
Samtskhe 4
Didube 1
TBD -
Gagra -
Guria 6
Merani Tbilisi 1
TBD -
Dinamo Tbilisi -
Kolkheti 1913 -
TBD -
Zooveti Tbilisi 0
Dusheti 2
Samtredia -
TBD -
West Georgia 0
Shturmi 2
Torpedo Kutaisi 2 0
Margveti 2006 4
TBD -
Iberia 1999 -
Aragvelebi 0
FC Tbilisi 2025 4
TBD -
FC Rustavi -
Skuri Tsalenjikha 3
Dinamo Tbilisi 2 4
TBD -
Spaeri -
Iveria Khashuri 5
Betlemi Keda 4
TBD -
Torpedo Kutaisi -
Merani Martvili -
TBD -
Gagra 2 1
Odishi 1919 2
FC Rustavi 2 2
Orbi 3
TBD -
Dinamo Batumi -
Merani Martvili 2 1
Iberia 1999 2 2
TBD -
Telavi -
Mertskhali 1
Gori 3
TBD -
Bolnisi -
FC Gardabani 1
FC Iberia 2010 Tbilisi 5
TBD -
Dila Gori -
Dmanisi 0
WIT Georgia 3
TBD -
Samgurali -
Dinamo Sokhumi 0
Gonio 3
TBD -
Meshakhte Tkibuli -
1/16-finals
Basa 0
FC Gareji Sagarejo 2
Samtskhe 1
Gagra 2
Guria 1
Dinamo Tbilisi 0
Kolkheti 1913 0
Dusheti 1
Samtredia 2
Shturmi 1
Margveti 2006 1
Iberia 1999 3
FC Tbilisi 2025 0
FC Rustavi 1
Dinamo Tbilisi 2 1
Spaeri 5
Iveria Khashuri 1
Torpedo Kutaisi 3
Merani Martvili 1
Odishi 1919 2
Orbi 1
Dinamo Batumi 4
Iberia 1999 2 0
Telavi 1
Gori 1
Bolnisi 0
FC Iberia 2010 Tbilisi 0
Dila Gori 1
WIT Georgia 2
Samgurali 3
Gonio 1
Meshakhte Tkibuli 2
1/8-finals
FC Gareji Sagarejo 1
Gagra 4
Guria 1
Dusheti 2
Samtredia 2
Iberia 1999 0
FC Rustavi 3
Spaeri 1
Torpedo Kutaisi 4
Odishi 1919 1
Dinamo Batumi 1
Telavi 0
Gori 0
Dila Gori 2
Samgurali 1
Meshakhte Tkibuli 0
Quarter-finals
Gagra 1
Dusheti 0
Samtredia 1
FC Rustavi 2
Torpedo Kutaisi 2
Dinamo Batumi 4
Dila Gori 2
Samgurali 1
Semi-finals
Gagra -
FC Rustavi -
Dinamo Batumi -
Dila Gori -
Final
TBD -
TBD -