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FC Moravia vs Aserri - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Liga de Ascenso
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Match Events

77' Event
Melendez A.

AI Match Summary

The Liga de Ascenso game between FC Moravia and Aserri finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward FC Moravia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
FC Moravia
15%
Draws
46%
Aserri
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aserri

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Aserri haven't matched FC Moravia's recent run of results.
  • Model gives FC Moravia a 36% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors FC Moravia here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
FC Moravia Clean Sheet 20%
Aserri Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Moravia Aserri
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 9 6
Draws 8 10
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.24 1
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.78
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
FC Moravia vs Aserri
1:0
Aug 8, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Aserri vs FC Moravia
0:3
Mar 13, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
FC Moravia vs Aserri
6:2
Jan 27, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Aserri vs FC Moravia
0:0
Nov 6, 2025 Liga de Ascenso
Aserri vs FC Moravia
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Moravia Compare

Top Goalscorer Melendez A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Aserri Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Moravia 36 / 100
Aserri 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Moravia Aserri

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

FC Moravia's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Aserri let in goals in 70% of their last 27 matches.

Recent resilience: FC Moravia stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FC Moravia VS Aserri
1.38 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Moravia

(Home)
02 Oct
FC Moravia
0 : 3
Carmelita
26 Sept
FC Moravia
1 : 0
Aserri
19 Sept
Guadalupe
0 : 3
FC Moravia
15 Sept
Pitbulls
3 : 2
FC Moravia
05 Sept
FC Moravia
1 : 2
Santa Ana
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Aserri

(Away)
04 Oct
Aserri
2 : 3
Guadalupe
26 Sept
FC Moravia
1 : 0
Aserri
20 Sept
Aserri
1 : 0
Santa Ana
12 Sept
CS Uruguay
0 : 1
Aserri
06 Sept
Aserri
1 : 1
Cariari Pococi
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 ADR Jicaral 9 6 3 0 15:5 21
2 Quepos FC 9 5 1 3 13:7 16
3 Grecia 8 4 2 2 9:6 14
4 AD Rosario 8 4 1 3 11:10 13
5 AD Sarchi 8 3 2 3 8:11 11
6 Santa Cruz 9 2 0 7 11:19 6
7 Cofutpa 9 1 1 7 8:17 4
Promotion - Liga de Ascenso (Apertura - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Santa Ana 10 7 0 3 14:10 21
2 Pitbulls 10 5 4 1 18:13 19
3 Carmelita 10 4 3 3 19:11 15
4 Aserri 10 4 2 4 10:11 14
5 Cariari Pococi 10 3 4 3 11:11 13
6 FC Moravia 10 3 1 6 12:13 10
7 Guadalupe 10 2 3 5 13:19 9
8 CS Uruguay 10 2 3 5 9:18 9
Promotion - Liga de Ascenso (Apertura - Play Offs)