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FC Naples vs New York Cosmos

USA USA

USL League One Paradise Coast Sports Complex, Naples, FL
Sat, Oct 3, 2026
VS
11:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

FC Naples host New York Cosmos in the USL League One. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Recent numbers: FC Naples at 1 goals for, 1.79 against; New York Cosmos at 1.28 for, 2 against. Head-to-head, FC Naples have won 0 to New York Cosmos's 1, with 0 draws. They last met on Jul 8, 2026, ending 1:0. Model xG sits at 1.38 vs 1.63, favoring New York Cosmos. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
FC Naples
20%
Draws
44%
New York Cosmos
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: New York Cosmos

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • FC Naples have managed 1 goals a game lately — New York Cosmos are scoring more at 1.28.
  • New York Cosmos are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular USL League One form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
FC Naples Clean Sheet 14%
New York Cosmos Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Naples New York Cosmos
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 8 8
Draws 3 4
Losses 17 17
Goals Scored 1 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.79 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 8, 2026 USL League One
New York Cosmos vs FC Naples
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Naples 27 / 100
New York Cosmos 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Naples New York Cosmos

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick New York Cosmos Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

New York Cosmos let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

FC Naples's goal record stands at 64% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Recent resilience: FC Naples stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

New York Cosmos's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

FC Naples VS New York Cosmos
1.25 Goals Scored 1.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Naples

(Home)
26 Sept
FC Naples
1 : 0
Chattanooga Red Wolves
19 Sept
Fort Wayne
2 : 2
FC Naples
11 Sept
One Knoxville
0 : 0
FC Naples
05 Sept
FC Naples
0 : 2
Athletic Club Boise
29 Aug
Greenville Triumph
4 : 0
FC Naples
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New York Cosmos

(Away)
27 Sept
New York Cosmos
3 : 2
Richmond Kickers
19 Sept
New York Cosmos
1 : 2
Westchester SC
12 Sept
Athletic Club Boise
2 : 1
New York Cosmos
05 Sept
Fort Wayne
2 : 4
New York Cosmos
02 Sept
New York Cosmos
1 : 2
Sarasota Paradise
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Union Omaha 29 19 4 6 53:31 61
2 Charlotte Independence 28 17 6 5 64:40 57
3 Forward Madison 28 15 6 7 50:27 51
4 One Knoxville 28 13 9 6 44:31 48
5 Athletic Club Boise 28 13 7 8 44:39 46
6 Chattanooga Red Wolves 27 13 4 10 47:39 43
7 Spokane Velocity 25 13 4 8 37:33 43
8 Fort Wayne 27 10 8 9 42:36 38
9 Corpus Christi FC 27 9 9 9 32:37 36
10 Sarasota Paradise 27 9 6 12 37:40 33
11 AV Alta FC 28 8 8 12 34:40 32
12 FC Naples 27 9 4 14 30:43 31
13 Westchester SC 28 8 6 14 46:45 30
14 Portland Hearts of Pine 28 7 9 12 40:50 30
15 New York Cosmos 27 7 4 16 35:54 25
16 Greenville Triumph 27 6 5 16 30:51 23
17 Richmond Kickers 27 5 5 17 27:56 20
Promotion - USL League One (Play Offs)