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FC Obermais vs Calvi Noale

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group C 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

42' Event
Ghiotti E.

AI Match Summary

FC Obermais in this Serie D - Group C 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored FC Obermais.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
FC Obermais
35%
Draws
40%
Calvi Noale
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Calvi Noale

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Calvi Noale lately — more wins on the board than FC Obermais.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
FC Obermais Clean Sheet 22%
Calvi Noale Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Obermais Calvi Noale
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 13
Draws 10 6
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.21 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.24 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Serie D - Group C
FC Obermais vs Calvi Noale
1:0
Oct 26, 2025 Serie D - Group C
Calvi Noale vs FC Obermais
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Obermais Compare

Top Goalscorer Ghiotti E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Calvi Noale Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Obermais 37 / 100
Calvi Noale 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Obermais Calvi Noale

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Calvi Noale Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC Obermais's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Calvi Noale conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: FC Obermais stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FC Obermais VS Calvi Noale
1.25 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Obermais

(Home)
20 Sept
Conegliano
1 : 0
FC Obermais
16 Sept
FC Obermais
1 : 1
Lavarian Mortean Esperia
13 Sept
Este
0 : 1
FC Obermais
06 Sept
FC Obermais
2 : 5
Cjarlins Muzane
05 Aug
Levico Terme
0 : 0
FC Obermais
Page 1 of 6

Calvi Noale

(Away)
20 Sept
Legnago Salus
0 : 1
Calvi Noale
16 Sept
Calvi Noale
0 : 0
Schio
13 Sept
Triestina
1 : 1
Calvi Noale
06 Sept
Calvi Noale
0 : 2
Mestre
03 May
Bassano Virtus
0 : 1
Calvi Noale
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Treviso 34 21 6 7 50:25 69
2 Legnago Salus 34 18 7 9 63:41 61
3 Clodiense 34 17 9 8 47:29 60
4 Este 34 14 13 7 40:29 55
5 Mestre 34 14 13 7 37:29 55
6 Cjarlins Muzane 34 13 12 9 41:39 51
7 Brian Lignano 34 16 8 10 58:34 50
8 Conegliano 34 13 11 10 36:28 50
9 Bassano Virtus 34 12 14 8 37:27 50
10 Campodarsego 34 13 9 12 37:34 48
11 Altavilla 34 10 16 8 28:24 46
12 Calvi Noale 34 13 5 16 38:40 44
13 Luparense FC 34 10 13 11 36:39 43
14 Vigasio 34 8 14 12 44:46 38
15 San Luigi 34 8 10 16 33:54 34
16 FC Obermais 34 8 10 16 33:46 34
17 Adriese 34 5 6 23 24:62 18
18 Portogruaro 34 1 8 25 25:81 11
Promotion - Serie D - Group C 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group C 2025/2026 (Play Out)
Relegation - Serie D - Group C 2025/2026 (Additional match)