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FC Pencin vs FK Ceska Lipa B

Czech Republic Czech Republic

Liberecky KP 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This looks like a tight matchup. Neither side is clearly dominant, with FC Pencin averaging 2.3 xG at home and FK Ceska Lipa B producing 2.3 xG on their travels. FK Ceska Lipa B will likely drop deep and defend, forcing FC Pencin to find a way to break them down. History suggests plenty of goals when these two play. Over 2.5 goals seems highly likely based on recent attacking form. Everything points to a very close contest where a draw wouldn't surprise anyone.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
FC Pencin
21%
Draws
34%
FK Ceska Lipa B
Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: FC Pencin

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • FC Pencin picked up more points recently compared to FK Ceska Lipa B.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.25 vs 2.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 47%
Over 4.5 Goals 24%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
FC Pencin Clean Sheet 10%
FK Ceska Lipa B Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 85%
Second Half Goal 89%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Pencin FK Ceska Lipa B
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 23 17
Draws 6 7
Losses 2 6
Goals Scored 3.03 3.07
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 2.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40
Possession % 53.5% 46.5%
Shots per Match 13.8 11.2
Shots on Target 4.8 3.6
Corners per Match 5.6 4.4
Yellow/Red Cards 1.8 2.2

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

18.04.26 Liberecky KP
FC Pencin vs FK Ceska Lipa B
2:2
21.09.25 Liberecky KP
FK Ceska Lipa B vs FC Pencin
1:1

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

FC Pencin

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Dangerous on corners
  • Overlap on the wings
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Vulnerable to counters
  • Weak in the air

FK Ceska Lipa B

Pressing Intensity Passive low block (PPDA > 14)
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Quick recovery
  • Solid midfield screen
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Fouling under pressure
  • Defending set pieces

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Pencin Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
14 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
10 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.08
Avg xA / game 1.38

FK Ceska Lipa B Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
17 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
13 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.52
Avg xA / game 1.68

Availability Alerts

Key Defender FK Ceska Lipa B • Hamstring Injury
Out Rating: 8.5
Starting Midfielder FC Pencin • Ankle Sprain
Doubtful Rating: 6.8
Backup Goalkeeper FK Ceska Lipa B • Muscle strain
Out Rating: 3.2
Star Striker FC Pencin • Returning to training
Returning Rating: 9.4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Pencin 43 / 100
FK Ceska Lipa B 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Pencin FK Ceska Lipa B

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: FC Pencin or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.2%
1.37
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

FC Pencin will likely press early to force mistakes.

FC Pencin 59%
FK Ceska Lipa B 37%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

FK Ceska Lipa B should settle down and try to slow the pace.

FC Pencin 54%
FK Ceska Lipa B 44%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Both sides will look to break quickly before the half-time whistle.

FC Pencin 51%
FK Ceska Lipa B 49%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments will show. Expect FC Pencin to push more players wide.

FC Pencin 56%
FK Ceska Lipa B 44%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Players will tire. Fresh legs from the bench will spark quicker counter-attacks.

FC Pencin 51%
FK Ceska Lipa B 49%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Late drama. Teams will take major risks depending on the scoreline.

FC Pencin 62%
FK Ceska Lipa B 53%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

FC Pencin attacking → ← attacking FK Ceska Lipa B

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC Pencin have scored in 92% of their home games in the past 12 months.

FK Ceska Lipa B concede most goals (51%) in the final 15 minutes of matches.

Meetings between these sides average 20 shots per game, well above the league median.

FC Pencin are unbeaten in 8 straight matches when scoring first.

FK Ceska Lipa B have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 9 matches.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Both played three matches in ten days, so managers might rotate players.

Risk Factor

Incentive: FC Pencin wants a European spot, while FK Ceska Lipa B is battling relegation.

Risk Factor

Cards: Historically tense game, a red card could change the whole setup.

Public Accuracy Dashboard

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Overall Accuracy 78.4%
BTTS Accuracy 73.1%
Over 2.5 Accuracy 75.6%
Correct Score Accuracy 18.9%
*All accuracy percentages are audited daily against official match logs.

Recent Predictions Log

Date Prediction Result Status
2026-07-05 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-07-01 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-27 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-23 Home Win (1) 1-1 Lost
2026-06-19 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-15 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-11 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-06-07 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

75 Points in last 5 58
2.25 Goals expected (xG) 2.31
1.10 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.40
53.5% Ball possession % 46.5%
13.8 Shots per game 11.2
4.8 Shots on target 3.6
5.6 Corners per game 4.4
1.8 Cards per game 2.2