Sport Picks

Stadium Background

FC Porto vs Alverca

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal Estádio do Dragão, Porto
Sun, Aug 9, 2026
VS
05:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

FC Porto host Alverca in the Liga Portugal. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. FC Porto have averaged 1.13 scored and 0.75 conceded recently, against Alverca's 0.75 scored and 0.75 conceded. Past meetings favor FC Porto slightly — 4-0-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 2, 2026, ending 1:0. xG projections (0.94 - 0.75) back FC Porto to edge this. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
FC Porto
40%
Draws
29%
Alverca
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • FC Porto carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors FC Porto here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
FC Porto Clean Sheet 20%
Alverca Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Porto Alverca
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 22 10
Draws 6 8
Losses 5 11
Goals Scored 1.13 0.75
Goals Conceded 0.75 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Liga Portugal
FC Porto vs Alverca
1:0
Dec 22, 2025 Liga Portugal
Alverca vs FC Porto
0:3
Apr 25, 2004 Liga Portugal
FC Porto vs Alverca
1:0
Dec 22, 2003 Liga Portugal
Alverca vs FC Porto
1:2
Mar 16, 2002 Liga Portugal
FC Porto vs Alverca
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Porto 32 / 100
Alverca 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Porto Alverca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC Porto scored in 88% of their last 33 games.

Defensive concern: Alverca conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Solid form: FC Porto remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

FC Porto VS Alverca
1.13 Goals Scored 0.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Porto

(Home)
25 Jul
FC Porto
2 : 1
Aston Villa
22 Jul
Gil Vicente
1 : 0
FC Porto
16 May
FC Porto
1 : 0
Santa Clara
10 May
AFS
3 : 1
FC Porto
02 May
FC Porto
1 : 0
Alverca
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Alverca

(Away)
25 Jul
Mafra
1 : 0
Alverca
22 Jul
Alverca
2 : 0
Estoril
17 Jul
Alverca
2 : 1
CF Os Belenenses
11 Jul
Leiria
0 : 1
Alverca
16 May
Famalicao
1 : 0
Alverca
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Estrela da Amadora00000:00
2Vitoria Guimaraes00000:00
3Estoril00000:00
4Gil Vicente00000:00
5Rio Ave00000:00
6Santa Clara00000:00
7Moreirense00000:00
8FC Porto00000:00
9Sporting CP00000:00
10Benfica00000:00
11Maritimo00000:00
12Braga00000:00
13Nacional00000:00
14Arouca00000:00
15Casa Pia00000:00
16Academico Viseu00000:00
17Alverca00000:00
18Famalicao00000:00
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2027/2028 (Main)