Sport Picks

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FC Porto vs Aston Villa

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
William Gomes
12' Event
Lynch L.
23'
Sub
Bailey L. In: Broggio B.
Out: Bailey L.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between FC Porto and Aston Villa finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward FC Porto.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
FC Porto
15%
Draws
42%
Aston Villa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FC Porto

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • FC Porto carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
FC Porto Clean Sheet 20%
Aston Villa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Porto Aston Villa
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 20 14
Draws 4 3
Losses 5 12
Goals Scored 1.76 2.03
Goals Conceded 0.79 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 25, 2026 Club Friendly
FC Porto vs Aston Villa
2:1
Jul 31, 2009 Peace Cup
FC Porto vs Aston Villa
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Porto Compare

Top Goalscorer William Gomes
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pepê
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

Aston Villa Compare

Top Goalscorer Lynch L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Porto 31 / 100
Aston Villa 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Porto Aston Villa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FC Porto Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC Porto's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Aston Villa let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

FC Porto went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FC Porto VS Aston Villa
2.38 Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Porto

(Home)
02 Oct
Dep. A Coruna
1 : 3
FC Porto
20 Sept
FC Porto
3 : 1
Benfica
12 Sept
Casa Pia
1 : 4
FC Porto
08 Sept
FC Porto
0 : 2
Manchester City
04 Sept
FC Porto
2 : 1
Moreirense
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Aston Villa

(Away)
02 Oct
Sevilla
1 : 3
Aston Villa
19 Sept
Tottenham
2 : 3
Aston Villa
16 Sept
Coventry
1 : 3
Aston Villa
12 Sept
Aston Villa
1 : 2
Nottingham
08 Sept
Club Brugge
2 : 3
Aston Villa
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